How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?
9.27median
114
Median 9.27Middle half 7.46 – 11.3
Install
How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?
The odds
2.65median
06
Median 2.65Middle half 1.69 – 3.78
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.27 on Nov 6, 2.65 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 94% | ▲ 1 | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 200 |
| At least 2 | 67% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | |
| At least 3 | 41% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 177 |
| At least 4 | 21% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| At least 5 | 8% | 3¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump Cabinet
Search ›- Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picksFox News Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picks Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warns that an incoming Democratic Senate majority means no Supreme Court Justice or major cabinet officials will be…
- Who Will Leave Trump Cabinet Next? Trade on Prediction MarketsBy Paul Lebowitz in Politics News With the midterm elections now in the rearview mirror, many are wondering: Who will leave the Trump Cabinet next? Republicans got blown off the field in a midterm massacre, losing in Senate races in swing…
- Trump Cabinet member’s son-in-law wins House race to become youngest member(Daily Caller News Foundation) – The 26-year-old son-in-law of a Trump cabinet official will become the youngest member of the next Congress and the first born in the 2000s – after running a campaign aligned with the Make America Healthy…
- Another Trump Cabinet official caught using taxpayer funds for partisan video: reportGovernment watchdog groups say Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth likely broke federal law by having Pentagon staff and taxpayer-funded resources produce a self-promotional video attacking Democrats as he fights to keep his job, The Washington…
- 'Unleash the Kraken': Democrats melt down as Stephen Miller explodes in fiery first speech as chief of staff, and Trump's cabinet gives taste of new era under 'Wartime Consigliere'Stephen Miller promised Donald Trump his 'unwavering commitment and total devotion' to the president's success as the MAGAverse praised the new Chief of Staff. Trump announced Friday that Miller would take over the powerful position on…
- ‘Head on a platter’: Dems smell blood as they circle a Trump Cabinet memberUS first lady Melania Trump passes a pen to Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after signing President Donald Trump's executive order on women's health, which she spearheaded, in the Rose Garden at the White…
- Will Marco Rubio quit Trump's Cabinet to run for president in 2028? Here's what he saidRubio dismissed reports of a possible exit after Bloomberg claimed he had discussed stepping down with White House officials. Washington: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed reports that he is considering leaving the Trump…
- Rubio resignation rumors roil Trump cabinet after midterm defeatsAfter Republicans lost their majorities in both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, rumors are emerging that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender, may resign. However, there has…
- Is Marco Rubio Resigning From Trump Cabinet After Midterm Debacle? State Department RespondsUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is facing speculation about his future in the Trump administration following reports that he could resign after the Republicans' crushing midterm losses and prepare for a potential 2028 presidential run…
- 23 people in Trump's cabinetThere are 23 people in the cabinet of US President Donald Trump. The elected vice president is James David Pence, and Susan Wiles heads the White House apparatus. Born in 1946, Donald Trump is a member of the Republican Party. He defeated…
- JACKSON THOMPSON: Dana White says he'll meet with Trump amid claim of White House press secretary job offerFormer White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, in a Fox News Digital exclusive, offers a candid verdict on her successor's short-lived stint as Trump's press secretary and shares that she's advising the president as he picks another…
- US Midterms: Democrats Surge In Congress, War In Iran And Trump Cabinet Face HeatA panel discussion analyses the political fallout of the US midterm elections as projections show significant gains for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Sanjeev Joshipura of Indiaspora notes that while a…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
36%Pete Hegseth
- Pete Hegseth36%▼ 6
- Will Scharf30%▼ 11
- Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
- Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
- Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
- Howard Lutnick26%▲ 6
- Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
- Kash Patel22%▼ 2
- Doug Collins21%▲ 1
- Brad Cooper19%▼ 1
- Dan Caine19%▼ 3
- Kevin Hassett19%▲ 3
- Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
- Steven Cheung18%▼ 14
- Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
- Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
- Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio14%▼ 1
- Chris Wright14%
- Doug Burgum14%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 2
- John Ratcliffe14%
- Jamieson Greer13%▲ 2
- Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
- Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
- Scott Turner13%▲ 1
- Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
- Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
- Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
- Tom Homan12%▲ 1
- Todd Blanche11%▼ 6
- Rodney Scott10%
- Mike Huckabee10%▼ 1
- Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
- Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
- Russell Vought8%
- Scott Bessent8%
- Lee Zeldin8%
- Tilman Fertitta7%
- Brendan Carr5%▼ 1
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
35%chance▼ 8
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
99%Susie Wiles
- Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
- None before 2027<1%▼ 17
- J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
- Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
- Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
- Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
- Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
- Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
- Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
- Scott Turner<1%
- Sean Duffy<1%
- Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
- Linda McMahon<1%
- Doug Collins<1%
- Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
- Russell T. Vought<1%
- John Ratcliffe<1%
- Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
- Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
- Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Trump out as President before 2027?
2%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions