Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
China strategic oil inventories in Q3 2026
The odds
1,447median
1,3501,650
Median 1,447Middle half 1,404 – 1,482
How the odds have moved
Median: 1,465 on Oct 9, 1,447 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1,400 million barrels | 78% | ▼ 1 | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 109 |
| Above 1,450 million barrels | 49% | ▼ 3 | 44¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 41.00 |
| Above 1,500 million barrels | 12% | ▼ 5 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 789 |
| Above 1,550 million barrels | 4% | ▼ 5 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 4.00 | |
| Above 1,600 million barrels | 1% | ▼ 7 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
Search ›- Taiwan detains a Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Authorities in Taiwan…
- Asian chip stocks in South Korea and Taiwan gain despite Nvidia scrutinyAsian tech heavyweights rose across the region on Monday, rebounding from Friday's losses and in the midst of Nvidia's probe into CEO Jensen Huang. Taiwan's markets led the rally in Asian markets, with the Taiwan Weighted Index up as much…
- China to resume Taiwan tour groups amid blame gameTAIPEI, Taiwan – China announced on Friday a plan to resume group tours to Taiwan after it criticized the island over what it called its inaction in normalizing cross-strait interactions. Tourism between China, which claims self-ruled…
- Taiwan and South Korea Join Forces on Musical Theater Co-ProductionsThe Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA) and the Korean Association of Musical Producers (KAMP) signed a memorandum of understanding at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF) in Taipei to expand musical theater collaboration between…
- Taiwan condemns China for distorting UN resolution, reasserts sovereigntyTaiwans Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOFA has condemned China over what it described as false statements undermining the sovereignty of the Republic of China ROC reiterating that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to…
- China EconomyGot a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this delivered to your inbox, and ... More In China Economy
- China Rehearses Taiwan Blockade In Unannounced Naval War DrillChina may be conducting a major, unannounced war drill aimed at isolating Taiwan, with more than 100 naval and coast guard vessels deployed across the Western Pacific, according to a new assessment. That positioning, according to Karas…
- China’s special-purpose barges could overrun Taiwan shores: expertsTAIPEI, Taiwan – China’s construction of “special-purpose barges” has raised concerns about its plans to invade Taiwan, with analysts warning that the vessels could enable Beijing’s rapid troop deployment onto Taiwanese soil, addressing…
- Former NCT Member Lucas Wong Makes Acting Debut in Taiwanese Folk-Music Drama ‘A Time’ With Jerry Yan, Ning Chang at Taiwan Creative Content FestTaiwanese director Tsao Jui-yuan unveiled his new drama series “A Time,” rooted in Taiwan’s campus folk music movement of the 1970s, at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF). Tsao, known for “Crystal Boys,” “A Touch of Green” and…
- Taiwan detains Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionHe's accused of running under the direction of China’s Communist Party. TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Authorities in Taiwan detained the leader of the island's Taiwan People’s Communist Party, accusing him of running as a candidate for borough chief…
- China responds to reports linking Jensen Huang to alleged Chinese spyCNBC's Eunice Yoon reports on the Chinese government's response to Nvidia investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. China responds to reports linking Jensen Huang to alleged…
- China’s Amphibious Forces Grow but U.S. Analysts Say Taiwan Invasion Remains High RiskThe People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) have a difficult history. To put it mildly. The seeds of this acrimony were sown long before the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. To Beijing, Taiwan… This post was…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions