Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
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Central banks odds
Every Central banks market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
Trending central banks markets
Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
68%No Change
- No Change68%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
- 25 bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 14
- No change19%▼ 14
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 5
Which central banks will hike before 2027?
6%Swiss National Bank
- Swiss National Bank6%
Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
- Maintain current rate22%▼ 4
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
95%No change
- No change95%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Chile rate decision in December (Dec 15, 2026 meeting)
56%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate56%▲ 2
- Hike 1-25bps37%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps4%▲ 2
- Hike more than 25bps2%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
64%No change
- No change64%
- 25 bps increase31%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps increase3%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease2%
Bank of Korea decision in November?
97%25 bps hike
- 25 bps hike97%
- No Change2%
- 50+ bps hike1%
- 25 bps cut<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps cut<1%
Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?
0median
05
Median 0Middle half 0 – 0
Bank of Mexico rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
85%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate85%▼ 6
- Cut 25bps13%▲ 6
- Cut more than 50bps2%
- Cut 50bps2%
3 more
- Hike 50bps2%
- Hike more than 50bps2%
- Hike 25bps1%
Czech National Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
94%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate94%▲ 3
- Hike 1-25bps3%▼ 4
- Cut 1-25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
New Zealand rate decision in December (Dec 8, 2026 meeting)
77%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps77%▲ 18
- Maintain current rate19%▼ 23
- Hike more than 25bps2%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
ECB Interest Rates in Dec 2026
83%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps83%
- 0bps (Unchanged)14%
- Cut >25bps2%
- Cut <=25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
2.54%median
1.38%3.38%
Median 2.54%Middle half 2.45% – 2.65%
Colombia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)
59%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate59%▼ 2
- Hike 1-25bps31%
- Hike more than 25bps4%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps3%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps2%
Hungary rate decision in November (Nov 17, 2026 meeting)
98%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate98%
- Cut 1-25bps2%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
Sweden rate decision in December (Dec 16, 2026 meeting)
72%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate72%
- Hike 1-25bps20%
- Cut more than 25bps2%
- Cut 1-25bps2%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps2%
Swiss National Bank rate decision in December (Dec 10, 2026 meeting)
92%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate92%▲ 2
- Hike 1-25bps7%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
90%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate90%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions