Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
The odds
>99%chance▲ 53
How the odds have moved
Yes: 40% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 29, 8 AM ET28% → >99%
- Oct 26, 9 PM ET48% → 62%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 24, 9 PM ET37% → 45%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | >99% | ▲ 53 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $72.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Christine Lagarde
Search ›- Could Christine Lagarde step into the French presidential race?An announcement by Christine Lagarde that she will step down as president of the European Central Bank nine months early, just in time for the French presidential election, has led to speculation that she is considering a run for the…
- Dutch and Spanish Candidates Enter Race to Succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB PresidentFormer Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos will compete for the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB) after their candidacies were officially announced today. Knot and Hernandez de Cos, who…
- The Netherlands and Spain have nominated candidates for the position of ECB president to replace Christine LagardeNovember 6 2026, 05:58 PM • 360 views Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot are vying for the position of ECB president following Christine Lagarde's departure on February 7. The decision will be discussed by eurozone ministers. the…
- ECB: Christine Lagarde’s departure reshuffles the deckWhilst there will be numerous vacancies within the European institutions in 2027, Christine Lagarde’s early departure from the European Central Bank (ECB) is forcing member states to speed up negotiations. In negotiations where alliances…
- Christine Lagarde Urges Europe to Strengthen Its Power Grids and Energy Storageenergynews.pro Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), is urging Europe to speed up its investment in climate change adaptation She makes the case in her first blog post since announcing her early departure from…
- The Battle to Replace Christine Lagarde: Europe’s Next Central Bank President Becomes a Political QuestionEurozone governments have been asked to submit nominations by Friday, 6 November, with finance ministers scheduled to examine the candidates at a Eurogroup meeting three days later. The accelerated timetable follows Lagarde’s announcement…
- Christine Lagarde: The outsider who led the ECB her wayPublished on 10/29/2026 at 12:22 pm EDT - Modified on 10/29/2026 at 03:10 pm EDT STORY: There have been rumors Christine Lagarde would leave for months, so that's not surprising. The timing, however, is surprising. She had said that when…
- Christine Lagarde's departure eclipses ECB's rate holdWhile the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected, it is above all the announcement of Christine Lagarde's upcoming departure that is attracting attention today and prompting reactions from economists at…
- Business Leader of the Week: Christine Lagarde walks away from a Europe on edgeShe was a lawyer rather than an economist, a former politician rather than a career central banker, and the first woman to run the institution that sets interest rates for the 21 countries that now share the euro. Seven years on, she is…
- Reactions to early resignation of ECB President Christine LagardePublished on 10/29/2026 at 12:50 pm EDT A Tech Correction Meets Election Day November 03, 2026 at 09:14 am EST The old economy fights back Is French Debt Still Sustainable? Lagarde Heads for the Exit, Tech Loses Its Footing
- If Christine Lagarde enters French politics, the centre might just holdWhy, then, does the return to politics of European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde feel like a big moment? No one is yet talking about Ms Lagarde pulling off a surprise victory in France’s presidential election next April. Yet her…
- Spain nominates former central bank head De Cos for ECB presidency, Deputy PM saysThe Spanish government said it has put forward former central bank chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos as a candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, according to a letter seen by Reuters. "I am…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions