Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Kalshi Politics Closes Mar 31, 2028 · $35.1K traded · $12.4K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

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The odds

84%New Hampshire
  • New Hampshire84%
  • Iowa11%▲ 1
  • South Carolina4%
  • Nevada1%

How the odds have moved

New Hampshire: 87% on Oct 20, 84% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
New Hampshire 84% 81¢ 87¢ $1.15 36.8K
Iowa 11% ▲ 1 7¢ 14¢ $7.14 29.2K
South Carolina 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 30.5K
Nevada 1% 1¢ $100.00 4.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Hampshire, South Carolina

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  • Noah Treadwell leads South Carolina State past South Carolina UpstateCBS Sports · 3 days agoCBS Sports Noah Treadwell leads South Carolina State past South Carolina Upstate Mitchel Taylor and Brian Harris chipped in 12 points apiece to keep the Bulldogs unbeaten at 2-0, while Alessandro Perotti grabbed nine rebounds for the host…
  • New Hampshire U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News New Hampshire U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
  • How Annie Andrews won in South CarolinaNBC News · 3 days agoSteve Kornacki breaks down the midterm election in South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews is projected by NBC News to win the Senate seat — and how evangelical Christian counties that are reliably red, but where late Senator Lindsey…
  • South Carolina Keys to a Victory Over Texas A&MSouth Carolina Gamecocks On SI · 2 days agoSouth Carolina and Texas A&M are set to kick things off in just under an hour. Here are three keys to victory for the Gamecocks today. Take care of the football, but mainly can you force Texas A&M to make mistakes? That is what South…
  • LaNorris Sellers seals South Carolina's 17-9 win over Texas A&MCBS Sports · 2 days agoMalik Orsan's 43-yard field goal midway through the final quarter put South Carolina ahead for good, 10-9, while Sellers' 41-yard TD run on an injured ankle in the last two minutes sealed things. It was far from a vintage performance from…
  • LaNorris Sellers guts out South Carolina's 17-9 win over Texas A&MCBS Sports · 2 days agoSellers threw for 251 yards and a touchdown and added a clinching, 41-yard rushing score on an injured ankle in the final two minutes to lift the 23rd-ranked Gamecocks to a 17-9 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday night. Spurrier, who led…
  • Texas A&M starter is questionable vs South CarolinaYahoo Sports · 3 days agoThe Texas A&M Aggies have released the updated injury report for their game against the South Carolina Gamecocks, with two big changes for the Aggies. Wide receivers Terry Bussey, Kelshaun Johnson, and Ashton Bethel-Roman are all out, as…
  • 5 Takeaways From Texas A&M's Crushing Loss to South CarolinaYahoo Sports · 2 days agoAnother week, same outcome. A loss. Texas A&M has now dropped its fifth SEC game of the season, and this time, it fell again on the road at South Carolina, 17-9. Definitely not the outcome head coach Mike Elko wanted, as his team is still…
  • How LaNorris Sellers said he tolerated ankle injury in South Carolina's 5th straight winYahoo Sports · 2 days agoCOLUMBIA — The 2026 South Carolina football season started to look bleak after quarterback LaNorris Sellers needed help getting back to the sideline, following a Texas A&M strip sack late in the first half. Trainers ushered him straight to…
  • Texas A&M Faces an Unusual Twist Ahead of South Carolina ShowdownYahoo Sports · 3 days agoApparently, Texas A&M has become the SEC's preferred homecoming guest. For the second straight road trip, the Aggies will arrive in a college town decorated for somebody else's celebration. Alabama welcomed its alumni back to Tuscaloosa on…
  • Texas A&M vs. South Carolina live updates: Score, highlights, analysisYahoo Sports · 3 days agoTexas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC) returns to the field after its Week 9 bye to take on No. 21 South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC) in Columbia, where the Aggies haven't won since 2020. In 2025, Texas A&M stormed back to defeat the Gamecocks 31-30 after…
  • Texas A&M’s Mike Elko Roasted for Comments After Loss to South CarolinaNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 08:00 PM EST On November 15, 2025, the Texas A&M Aggies agreed to a contract extension with head coach Mike Elko amid a 9-0 start before playing South Carolina. The Aggies would trail the Gamecocks 30-3 at halftime of that…

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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 2

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions