How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $40.6K today · $6.3M traded · $2.2M at stake · prices read 4 min ago

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The odds

52.0median

44.552.5

Median 52.0Middle half 51.7 – 52.2

How the odds have moved

Median: 51.6 on Oct 20, 52.0 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Contracts
Below 45	1%	0¢	1¢	2.0M
45	<1%		0¢	2.0M
46	<1%	0¢	0¢	1.8M
47	<1%		0¢	1.7M
48	<1%	0¢	0¢	1.9M
49	<1%		0¢	1.8M
50	<1%	0¢	0¢	1.9M
51	<1%		0¢	2.6M
52	<1%	0¢	1¢	3.8M
Above 52	98%	99¢	99¢	6.2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate, Midterms

Search ›

Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm lossesFox News · 2 days agoRon Johnson, R-Wisc., joins 'Saturday in America' to discuss President Donald Trump's comments to Senate Republicans and a new bid for Senate minority leader. Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm losses Ron Johnson, R-Wisc…
Trump rebukes Senate after midterm romp: 'It's just killing our country'Washington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
How Democrats reshaped the Senate, in charts and mapsCNN · 40 h agoTwo years after President Donald Trump carried much of the country’s political map, voters in some of his strongest states delivered a dramatic reversal Tuesday. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held Senate seats, including in states…
These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yetCBS News · 3 days agoNovember 6, 2026 / 9:18 AM EST / CBS News The makeup of Congress shifted dramatically in the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats decisively won control of the Senate and picked up dozens of House seats — in what's on track to be one of…
Tennessee U.S. Senate Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 4 days agoThe Tennessee Senate race has shifted 17.55 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to Republicans ... After a historic wave of Democratic…
Delaware U.S. Senate Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 4 days agoThe Delaware Senate race has shifted 12.43 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to Republicans Arrow ... After a historic wave of…
Democrats' post-midterm agenda EXPOSED amid impeachment talkFox News · 27 h agoFox News contributor Johnny 'Joey' Jones and other panelists join 'The Big Weekend Show' to discuss the Democrats' post-midterm priorities. Democrats' post-midterm agenda EXPOSED amid impeachment talk Fox News contributor Johnny 'Joey'…
Democrats' midterm victories open path to bypass Electoral CollegeFox News · 27 h agoFox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas joins ‘Fox Report’ to discuss the Democrats' post-midterm agenda. Democrats' midterm victories open path to bypass Electoral College Fox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas joins ‘Fox…
On GPS: Ezra Klein on the Democrats’ stunning midterms performancecnn.com · 32 h agoFor years, American politics seemed to be driven by two polarized sides, and shaped largely by cultural issues. Fareed discusses whether that divide is beginning to break down with the New York Times opinion columnist Ezra Klein, who hosts…
Newly elected Democrats arrive in DC after historic midterm victoriesFox News · 30 h agoFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram joins ‘Fox News Live’ to report on the newly elected Democrats arriving to Washington, D.C. after a historic blue wave took place in the midterm elections. Newly elected Democrats…
How will Democrats approach foreign policy after their midterm win?NPR · 36 h agoNPR's Rob Schmitz speaks with Thomas Wright, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, about his piece in Foreign Affairs titled The Fight for the Future of Democratic Foreign Policy. How will Democrats approach foreign policy after…
Democrats won the midterms. Republicans may have won something bigger.The Washington Post · 38 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Social Security and…

Related markets

All senate ›

Elections › Senate

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

55.7median

44.556.5

Median 55.7Middle half 55.6 – 56.1

Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesFeb 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$6.3M (25,631,514 contracts)

Today$40.6K

This week$1.3M

At stake$2.2M

In the news786 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions