Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Polymarket Elections › Senate For Nov 3 · $3.9M today · $78.7M traded · $5.1M at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1

116 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, ME<1%
AK, IA, MI<1%
AK, IA, OH<1%
AK, IA, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME<1%

How the odds have moved

None: 24% on Oct 31, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
None	98%		98¢	98¢	$1.02	$10.6M
AK	2%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$1.7M
All 7	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$537K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$355K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$404K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$548K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$426K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$293K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$418K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$278K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$479K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$387K
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$465K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$33K
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$2.6M
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$411K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$409K
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$745K
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$288K
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$56K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$557K
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$679K
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$553K
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$661K
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$511K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$368K
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$404K
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$34K
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$346K
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$307K
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$378K
AK, IA, KS, ME	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$534K
AK, IA, KS, MI	<1%			0¢		$693K
AK, IA, KS, OH	<1%			0¢		$333K
AK, IA, KS, TX	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$556K
AK, IA, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$4K
AK, IA, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$444K
AK, IA, ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$44K
AK, IA, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$45K
AK, IA, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$465K
AK, IA, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$352K
AK, KS, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$375K
AK, KS, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$574K
AK, KS, ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$448K
AK, KS, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$338K
AK, KS, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$732K
AK, KS, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$464K
AK, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$514K
AK, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$531K
AK, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$378K
AK, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$41K
IA, KS, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$402K
IA, KS, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$321K
IA, KS, ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$445K
IA, KS, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$411K
IA, KS, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$497K
IA, KS, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$271K
IA, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$372K
IA, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$56K
IA, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$323K
IA, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$238K
KS, ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$346K
KS, ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$352K
KS, ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$407K
KS, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$255K
ME, MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$297K
AK, IA, KS	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$703K
AK, IA, ME	<1%			0¢		$88K
AK, IA, MI	<1%			0¢		$415K
AK, IA, OH	<1%			0¢		$399K
AK, IA, TX	<1%			0¢		$542K
AK, KS, ME	<1%			0¢		$469K
AK, KS, MI	<1%			0¢		$512K
AK, KS, OH	<1%			0¢		$446K
AK, KS, TX	<1%			0¢		$471K
AK, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$584K
AK, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$54K
AK, ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$445K
AK, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$381K
AK, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$341K
AK, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$364K
IA, KS, ME	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$67K
IA, KS, MI	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$864K
IA, KS, OH	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$382K
IA, KS, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$537K
IA, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$38K
IA, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$327K
IA, ME, TX	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$475K
IA, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$338K
IA, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$365K
IA, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$249K
KS, ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$385K
KS, ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$347K
KS, ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$405K
KS, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$359K
KS, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$618K
KS, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$327K
ME, MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$335K
ME, MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$468K
ME, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$302K
MI, OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$318K
AK, IA	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$1.1M
AK, KS	<1%			0¢		$507K
AK, ME	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$57K
AK, MI	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$511K
AK, OH	<1%			0¢		$365K
AK, TX	<1%			0¢		$44K
IA, KS	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$3.3M
IA, ME	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$747K
IA, MI	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$548K
IA, OH	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$57K
IA, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$479K
KS, ME	<1%			0¢		$458K
KS, MI	<1%			0¢		$603K
KS, OH	<1%			0¢		$366K
KS, TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$462K
ME, MI	<1%			0¢		$476K
ME, OH	<1%			0¢		$364K
ME, TX	<1%			0¢		$516K
MI, OH	<1%			0¢		$536K
MI, TX	<1%			0¢		$532K
OH, TX	<1%			0¢		$321K
IA	<1%	▼ 11		0¢		$3.5M
KS	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$58K
ME	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$64K
MI	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$843K
OH	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$542K
TX	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$535K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate Swing States

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

MeasuredNov 3, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Trading closesNov 11, 2026 8:11 PM ET

Traded$78.7M

Today$3.9M

This week$2.4M

At stake$5.1M

Followed here sinceOct 30, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its resu

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions