Next Senate Majority Leader?

Polymarket Elections › Senate Result pending · $204K today · $645K traded · $303K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 5
Brian Schatz1%
John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

How the odds have moved

Chuck Schumer: 93% on Nov 9, 89% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Chuck Schumer	89%	▼ 4	89¢	90¢	$1.11	$405K
Chris Van Hollen	10%	▲ 5	9¢	10¢	$10.00	$57.4K
Brian Schatz	1%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$18.2K
John Thune	<1%			0¢		$38.5K
John Barrasso	<1%			0¢		$5.5K
Steve Daines	<1%			0¢		$26K
Tom Cotton	<1%			0¢		$9.5K
Amy Klobuchar	<1%			0¢		$8.9K
Patty Murray	<1%			0¢		$7K
Cory Booker	<1%			0¢		$8.4K
Mark Kelly	<1%			0¢		$5.7K
Lindsey Graham	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$55.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, Chris Van Hollen

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Democratic tsunami revives unpopular Chuck Schumer as likely next majority leaderNew York Post · 18 h agoGood-luck Chuck just got a second chance. Sen. Chuck Schumer was one of the most unpopular politicians in the state days ago – but now he’s poised for another leadership stint thanks to the blue wave midterm elections. Schumer is likely to…
This Guy Would Perfectly Represent Democrat 'Priorities' As Senate Majority Leadertwitchy.com · 14 h agoThe Democrats will gain control of the House and Senate on January 3, and there's already some jostling going on for leadership roles. As you know, the ever-expanding socialist/DSA wing of the party is looking to replace Hakeem Jeffries…
Incoming Democrats skeptical of Chuck Schumer as leadercnn.com · 23 h agoChuck Schumer is confident heâll continue leading Senate Democrats after they captured the chamberâs majority in dramatic fashion on Tuesday. Not all Democrats are so sure. CNNâs Patrick Svitek reports. Incoming Democrats skeptical…
Chris Van Hollen fought when no one else would. Make him Dems’ leader.Inquirer.com · 34 h agoThe Establishment’s race to keep Schumer and Jeffries as leaders must be stopped if Dems want to hold onto their midterm gains. Maryland’s senior senator should be on the shortlist. It’s been nearly a week since the political earthquake of…
Democratic Voters Express Distrust Of Hakeem Jeffries And Chuck Schumer, Call For Nov. 14 Protest In WashingtonUrduPoint · 17 h agoMian Nadeem Published November 09, 2026 | 05:06 PM Young Democratic voters say the two senior leaders have strayed from the party’s agenda and received millions of dollars in on-the-record donations from pro-Israel lobby groups, urging the…
Democratic Revolt Erupts Around Chuck Schumer’s Bid For Majority Leader100PercentFedUp.com · 32 h agoChuck Schumer expected the Senate majority to come with a promotion. Instead, the New York Democrat is suddenly fighting a revolt inside his own party. Several sitting and incoming Democratic senators are refusing to give Schumer a blank…
Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries Are Not Meeting the MomentThe Nation · 15 h agoThe Democrats’ congressional leaders have been handed an enormous mandate they have no interest in carrying out. House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (left) and his Senate counterpartm Chuck Schumer at a February news conference. The big…
Chuck Schumer’s Non-Negotiable Post-Midterm-Election List of DemandsMcSweeney's Internet Tendency · 16 h ago1. Craft a strongly worded, unambiguous memorandum informing the president and his corrupt and lawless cabinet members that they will soon face indictments for their repeated constitutional transgressions. 2. Soften language to caution the…
World Trade Center Health Program funding suffers setback. Fire unions sound off on Congress' failure to act.CBS News · 20 h agoDecember 22, 2024 / 7:11 PM EST / CBS New York NEW YORK -- First responders who have 9/11-related illnesses have suffered another blow. Funding for the World Trade Center Health Program past 2027 was excluded from the federal budget on…
Chuck Schumer has shown he knows how to win. Now he should show something else.MS NOW · 38 h agoThe leader of the Senate Democrats has a chance to master something rare in Washington: the art of knowing when to step aside. Chuck Schumer should prepare to step down as Senate Democratic leader. Obviously not because he failed during…
Slotkin won’t rule out challenging Schumer for Senate majority leaderSpokesman.com · 2 days agoSen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., did not rule out whether she’ll challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., for majority leader when pressed at a Washington, D.C., event Saturday, according to organizers. “I’ve been very vocal that we need a new…

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AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
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AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
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AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
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IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
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KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Listed endNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET · still trading until the result is in

Traded$645K

Today$204K

This week$457K

At stake$303K

In the news17 headlines today, 208 this week

Followed here sinceNov 8, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions