US crude oil exports in November (November 2026)

Kalshi Economy Closes Jan 29, 2027 · $1 today · $4.2K traded · $394 at stake · prices read 52 min ago

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The odds

4.48median

3.506.50

Median 4.48Middle half 4.12 – 4.85

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.33 on Oct 16, 4.48 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 4.0 million barrels/day	84%		79¢	88¢	$1.14	3.5K
Above 4.5 million barrels/day	49%		44¢	53¢	$1.89	1.6K
Above 5.0 million barrels/day	15%	▼ 1	11¢	19¢	$5.26	1.6K
Above 5.5 million barrels/day	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11	2.0K
Above 6.0 million barrels/day	1%	▼ 3		1¢	$100.00	10.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC

Search ›

AAA Texas: Gas Prices Fall as Crude Oil Prices DeclineThe Gilmer Mirror · 3 days agoThe statewide gas price average in Texas is $3.58 for a gallon of regular unleaded fuel, according to AAA Texas That price is 12 cents less than on this day last week and 94 cents more per gallon compared to this day last year Of the major…
Rupee falls 9 paise to 94.50 against US dollar amid rising crude oil pricesMid-Day · 3 days agoMid-Day Home / Business / Business News / Article / Rupee declines 9 paise to 94.50 against US dollar amid rising crude oil prices Updated On: 06 November, 2026 10:28 AM IST | Mumbai | PTI At the interbank foreign exchange market the rupee…
Crude Oil Price Today: MCX Crude Oil Rs 8,607, Futures CurveUnivest · 3 days agoMCX crude Nov futures Rs 8,607 (+0.55%) at 12:50 PM, 6 Nov. Day range Rs 8,572 to 8,740. Dec Rs 8,513. BPCL -0.95%. ONGC +0.27%. IndiGo -0.55%. Crude oil price today on MCX is Rs 8,607 per barrel for November futures, up Rs 47 or 0.55% at…
Crude oil prices fall below $90 a barrel as Vance blames GOP election defeat on Iran warCNBC · 5 days agoCrude oil prices tumbled on Wednesday after Vice President JD Vance blamed the war against Iran for Republican midterm election reversals. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 7% lower at $89.40. Brent crude futures, the international…
Crude oil price gain amid fresh tanker attacks in Strait of HormuzBusinessLine · 4 days agoInteractive reads from the businessline desk Crude oil prices rose amid reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crossing $99 a barrel and WTI nearing $92. Crude oil futures traded higher on Friday morning following…
global-crude-oil-prices-drop-us-elections-results-wti-brent-2026 Archives - TV ONE USATV ONE USA · 4 days agoglobal-crude-oil-prices-drop-us-elections-results-wti-brent-2026 Archives TV ONE USA Phone: +1 917 605 7651 +1 855 886 6387 Ext 3 TV One USA is an Urdu-language television channel serving Pakistani American and South Asian communities…
Crude Oil Prices Rebound as Brent Moves Back Towards $100Urban Acres · 4 days agoCrude oil prices recovered sharply on Friday, with Brent moving back towards the $100-per-barrel mark after suffering its steepest decline in the period covered by the report earlier in the week. Brent crude was trading at $99.59 per…
Crude Oil Prices Settle Higher as Distillate Supplies Remain TightTradingView · 4 days agoDecember WTI crude oil (CLZ26) closed up +2.40 (+2.72%) on Thursday, and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) closed up +0.0348 (+1.28%). Crude prices pushed higher on Thursday after Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia's 340,000 bpd Ryazan…
Renewed US-Iran war fears drive oil prices highersemafor.com · 4 days agoUS President Donald Trump spoke with the emir of Qatar, which has sought to mediate a truce, but Washington and Tehran have also traded heated rhetoric. Oil prices briefly neared $100 a barrel following a days-long selloff on revived…
Crude oil prices jump for second straight day; Brent tops $100, WTI nears $92 as fresh attacks on tankers stoke supply fearsMoneycontrol · 4 days agoCrude oil prices surged for a second consecutive session on Friday, November 6, as fresh attacks on tankers intensified concerns over global supply disruptions, even as investors evaluated the evolving dynamics of the US-Israel conflict…
Crude oil prices jump; Brent tops $100, WTI nears $92 as fresh attacks on tankers stoke supply fearsThe Indian Panorama · 4 days agoBusiness & Economics | New York (TIP): Oil prices surged Thursday, Nov 5, recovering some of Wednesday's staggering losses as traders reconsidered whether the U.S. midterm New York (TIP): Oil prices surged Thursday, Nov 5, recovering some…
Soybean oil prices fall in Brazil and Argentina amid sharp decline in crude oil futures@UkrAgroConsult · 5 days agoUkrAgroConsult Soybean oil prices fall in Brazil and Argentina amid sharp decline in crude oil futures Soybean oil export prices in Brazil and Argentina fell significantly on November 4, 2026, as a sharp decline in crude oil futures…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Energy Information Administration

Trading closesJan 29, 2027 12:59 PM ET

Traded$4.2K (19,458 contracts)

Today$1

At stake$394

In the news23 headlines today, 956 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the U.S. crude oil exports average for November 2026 is above 4.0 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions