US gasoline inventories at the end of November (the end of November 2026)

Kalshi Economy Closes Jan 29, 2027 · $26.4K traded · $544 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

207.6median

190220

Median 207.6Middle half 206.2 – 209.0

How the odds have moved

Median: 201.9 on Oct 24, 207.6 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Below 195 million barrels	97%	7¢	96¢	$1.04	11.3K
Below 200 million barrels	96%	5¢	94¢	$1.06	10.2K
Below 205 million barrels	96%	2¢	98¢	$1.02	6.0K
Below 210 million barrels	7%	1¢	99¢	$1.01	1.8K
Below 215 million barrels	1%	1¢	44¢	$2.27	556

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: gas prices, gasoline

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Gas prices down; Finstad plans recount request : Minnesota TodayNPR · 3 days agoNPR The average price of gas in Minnesota has dropped back below $4 a gallon And Republican Congressman Brad Finstad says his campaign will pursue a recount in the election for his first district U.S. House seat. Unofficial results show…
Post-Election Market & Jobs, Why Gas Prices Could Stay High, Trump's Arch BlockedNPR · 4 days agoThe October jobs report will show whether hiring picked up after a weak September, even as inflation continues to outpace wages and markets reel from a sharp selloff.Democrats are promising relief from high fuel prices, but Congress has…
Gas prices could soon dip below $4 a gallon. So why are fuel costs falling?CBS News · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 4:19 PM EST / CBS News Motorists could soon see U.S. gasoline prices fall below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, according to energy experts. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at price-tracking firm GasBuddy…
DAVID ASMAN: Democrats exploit gas-price pain while ignoring their own recordFox News · 4 days agoFormer House Speaker Kevin McCarthy analyzes the midterm election results during 'America's Newsroom.' The incredible irony of this election is that Democrats won largely on the issue of higher gas prices…when those same Democrats have…
Oh, Hey, Check Out Those Gas Pricesredstate.com · 31 h agoOne of the big things we kept hearing about in the wake of the Republicans losing the House and the Senate was "gas prices." Yes, gas prices were higher after going into Iran. But were voters really going to trade a temporary situation for…
Michigan gas prices drop 33 cents in one week, AAA saysCBS News · 5 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 6:54 AM EST / CBS Detroit Gas prices are continuing to drop noticeably in Michigan, with a 22-cent decline since Monday and a 33-cent decline in the past week. That's according to AAA-The Auto Club Group, which issues…
1/4/27-NYS gas prices plummetOswego County Today · 2 days agoThat’s the day after all the new democratic and democratic socialists who won their elections and were sworn in the day before they start in their newly elected positions. If any of you listened to [1/4/27-NYS gas prices plummet][...]…
Gas Prices are Dropping Fast. I Have Questions.pjmedia.com · 45 h agoConservatives and leftists alike have quickly embraced the notion that America’s perception of President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran, and of its being a never-ending war, would keep the price of gas and diesel high…
Gas Prices Dip Below $4 Nationwide in 26 StatesHeadlines Plus · 2 days agoAverage gas prices have dropped under $4 per gallon in 26 states as of November 7, 2026. The decline gives drivers some relief heading into the weekend and the busy holiday travel season. Prices vary widely by state, with some regions…
Connecticut gas prices trend down@wfsbnews · 3 days agoWFSB Connecticut gas prices trend down Jury works late to get verdict in Cooper Ouellette trial Revolution Wind fully operational, sending power to Connecticut Wallingford recounting ballots Friday after running out on Election Day
Gas prices across the ArkLaTex as of early November@KSLA · 3 days agoKSLA Gas prices across the ArkLaTex as of early November KSLA News 12's Holiday Food Drive Part 1 Rhodes Properties, Northwestern State team up for Demon Dream Home Giveaway

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Energy Information Administration

Trading closesJan 29, 2027 12:59 PM ET

Traded$26.4K (29,771 contracts)

This week$4.3K

At stake$544

In the news44 headlines today, 490 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If U.S. total gasoline inventories at the end of November 2026 are below 215 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions