Next French presidential election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes May 30, 2028 · $35.5K today · $304K traded · $182K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

49%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen49%▲ 3
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
David Lisnard12%▼ 2
Édouard Philippe7%▼ 1
Christine Lagarde5%
Raphaël Glucksmann4%
François Hollande2%
Jordan Bardella2%
Gabriel Attal1%
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Dominique de Villepin1%

18 more

Sarah Knafo<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Bruno Le Maire<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Carole Delga<1%
François Ruffin<1%

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 51% on Oct 20, 49% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Marine Le Pen	49%	▲ 3	49¢	50¢	$2.00	448.5K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	13%		13¢	14¢	$7.14	146.5K
David Lisnard	12%	▼ 2	12¢	13¢	$7.69	153.2K
Édouard Philippe	7%	▼ 1	7¢	7¢	$13.70	87.5K
Christine Lagarde	5%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	172.1K
Raphaël Glucksmann	4%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	73.7K
François Hollande	2%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	107.8K
Jordan Bardella	2%		2¢	2¢	$45.45	207.4K
Gabriel Attal	1%		1¢	1¢	$76.92	102.9K
Bruno Retailleau	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	52.4K
Éric Zemmour	1%		1¢	1¢		68.8K
Dominique de Villepin	1%		1¢	1¢		57.7K
Sarah Knafo	<1%		0¢	1¢		78.3K
François Bayrou	<1%		0¢	1¢		98.7K
Manuel Bompard	<1%		0¢	1¢		95.2K
Laurent Wauquiez	<1%		0¢	0¢		109.9K
Yaël Braun-Pivet	<1%		0¢	0¢		199.4K
Jean Castex	<1%		0¢	0¢		107.5K
Michel Barnier	<1%		0¢	0¢		102.3K
Xavier Bertrand	<1%		0¢	0¢		97.4K
Valérie Pécresse	<1%		0¢	0¢		93.6K
Olivier Faure	<1%		0¢	0¢		101.8K
Mathilde Panot	<1%		0¢	0¢		124.3K
Sébastien Lecornu	<1%		0¢	0¢		29.0K
Élisabeth Borne	<1%		0¢	0¢		23.1K
Gérald Darmanin	<1%		0¢	0¢		24.1K
Bruno Le Maire	<1%		0¢	0¢		22.1K
Bernard Cazeneuve	<1%		0¢	0¢		22.3K
Carole Delga	<1%		0¢	0¢		21.7K
François Ruffin	<1%		0¢	0¢		20.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, David Lisnard

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Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treatedFox News · 20 days agoFox News Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treated President Donald Trump addresses whether he would endorse candidate Marine Le Pen for the French presidency.
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in Francemint · 19 days agoBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil…
Will French unrest benefit Marine Le Pen’s presidential run?The Irish Times · 19 days agoSitting presidentially behind a huge desk, the French flag behind her, Marine Le Pen took the occasion of the unrest in France this weekend to make a grave address to the nation. “In six months, the French people will be able to choose…
After the violence and chaos in France, there’s only one beneficiary: Marine Le Penthe Guardian · 21 days agoThe far-right leader’s promise to restore order will appeal to many ahead of next year’s presidential elections – the stakes are suddenly much higher Across France and the rest of Europe, people are in shock at scenes of arson and pillage…
Who Is Marine Le Pen? What Are Her Policies as Election Odds Rise Amid France Unrest?Outlook India · 19 days agoMarine Le Pen’s odds of winning France’s 2027 presidential election have crossed 50% on betting markets. Here is a look at her political career, EU funds conviction and key policies Marine Le Pen’s 2027 presidential election odds have…
Marine Le Pen Gains Support in French Presidential Poll After Weekend Riotsslguardian.org · 19 days agoThe far-right leader secures 34–38% in first-round polling for the 2027 election, although the survey cannot establish whether the unrest contributed to her rising support. Marine Le Pen has gained support in the first opinion poll on…
Marine Le Pen Seizes on French Chaos to Present Herself as Leader in WaitingHindustan Times · 21 days agoPARIS—The riots sweeping France have rocked the country’s political establishment, but one person is positioned to emerge from the chaos with a stronger hand: Marine Le Pen. The strategy was on display this week as Le Pen released a video…
Kalshi Prices Marine Le Pen’s 2027 Election Odds at 53%TokenPost · 20 days agoHer price rose from 39% over the past month as protests spread across France. Another contender’s price fell sharply over the same period. Kalshi traders priced French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s chance of winning the 2027…
As French protests escalate into riots, they may prove a gift for Marine Le Pen???s right???wing partyOnlineKhabar English News · 19 days agoHome » International » As French protests escalate into riots, they may prove a gift for Marine Le Pen’s right‑wing party Mass protests in France have spiralled into riots, with between 500,000 and 800,000 demonstrators in cities and towns…
France protests: Can Marine Le Pen benefit from unrest ahead of presidential election?@news24tvchannel · 20 days agoWritten By Navya Dubey As protests and violence spread across France last weekend, far-right leader Marine Le Pen attacked President Emmanuel Macron, blaming him for the unrest. However, it was not just her criticism of Macron that caught…
Marine Le Pen Seizes On French ChaosPolitical Wire · 21 days ago“The riots sweeping France have rocked the country’s political establishment, but one person is positioned to emerge from the chaos with a stronger hand: Marine Le Pen,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “For more than a decade, the…
Is Marine Le Pen Losing The Plot?Lucianne · 21 days agoHalf a year before the French presidential election, Marine Le Pen threatens Germany with a fiscal campaign. Le Pen's attempt to turn France's domestic fragmentation into its neighbor's problem even... Is Marine Le Pen Losing The Plot?…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe government of France

Trading closesMay 30, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$304K (3,049,757 contracts)

Today$35.5K

This week$101K

At stake$182K

In the news2 headlines today, 12 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions