Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round) (Apr 18, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2028 · $2.5K traded · $1.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

46%Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon46%▲ 1
  • David Lisnard15%
  • Édouard Philippe14%▼ 1
  • Marine Le Pen6%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann5%
  • Bruno Retailleau3%
  • Gabriel Attal2%
  • François Hollande2%
  • Jordan Bardella2%
  • Dominique de Villepin1%
  • Éric Zemmour1%
  • François Ruffin1%
2 more
  • Marine Tondelier1%
  • Xavier Bertrand1%

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 26% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 46% ▲ 1 46¢ 50¢ $2.00 2.2K
David Lisnard 15% 13¢ 20¢ $5.00 4.9K
Édouard Philippe 14% ▼ 1 12¢ 19¢ $5.26 849
Marine Le Pen 6% 5¢ 8¢ $12.50 3.5K
Raphaël Glucksmann 5% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 3.3K
Bruno Retailleau 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 508
Gabriel Attal 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 508
François Hollande 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 508
Jordan Bardella 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 508
Dominique de Villepin 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 454
Éric Zemmour 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 454
François Ruffin 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 454
Marine Tondelier 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 454
Xavier Bertrand 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 454

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, David Lisnard, Édouard Philippe

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions