Next French presidential election: 3rd place (1st round) (Apr 18, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2028 · $2.3K traded · $1.4K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

28%Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon28%▼ 1
  • Édouard Philippe25%▲ 1
  • Raphaël Glucksmann12%▼ 1
  • David Lisnard11%▲ 1
  • Marine Le Pen4%
  • Gabriel Attal2%
  • Bruno Retailleau2%
  • Éric Zemmour2%
  • François Hollande2%
  • Marine Tondelier2%
  • Xavier Bertrand2%
  • Dominique de Villepin2%
2 more
  • Jordan Bardella2%
  • François Ruffin2%

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 35% on Oct 20, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 28% ▼ 1 25¢ 32¢ $3.13 908
Édouard Philippe 25% ▲ 1 21¢ 28¢ $3.57 1.5K
Raphaël Glucksmann 12% ▼ 1 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 9.6K
David Lisnard 11% ▲ 1 7¢ 14¢ $7.14 3.5K
Marine Le Pen 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 725
Gabriel Attal 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 5.5K
Bruno Retailleau 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Éric Zemmour 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 383
François Hollande 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 383
Marine Tondelier 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 716
Xavier Bertrand 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.0K
Dominique de Villepin 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 383
Jordan Bardella 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 716
François Ruffin 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann

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  • French MPs will vote on Sánchez-style amnesty plan for undocumented workersPOLITICO · 14 days agoPresidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann is expected to endorse the measure, which would grant amnesty to hundreds of thousands of unauthorized immigrants. PARIS — Lawmakers in the French National Assembly will vote on a Socialist Party…
  • French presidential hopeful Philippe slips in new pollPOLITICO · 15 days agoThe former PM lost three points compared to Cluster 17’s survey from last month. This article is also available in: French PARIS — Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is losing ground to far-left challenger Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the…
  • Europe’s leaders still refuse to face the far-left’s assault on civilizationNew York Post · 14 days agoCan France’s Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders admit that the violence sweeping their nations has nothing to do with any legitimate grievance? It’s not students seeking better schools or moms decrying the high cost of groceries…
  • Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn@spikedonline · 19 days agoThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as…
  • French protests hand Melenchon election boostYahoo News · 16 days agoThe protests in France have handed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far Left, a boost in his presidential campaign. Polling conducted after the Oct 17 protests shows that Mr Mélenchon has pulled ahead of Édouard Philippe, an ally of…
  • France’s Protests Fuel a Wider Fight Over Europe’s FutureJacobin · 13 days agoGet an introductory Jacobin subscription for just $20 European authorities want France’s next government to cut welfare. It’s a stand for the same budget orthodoxies that have fueled current protests, and that have collapsed support for…
  • France’s Rulers Want Violence as a Pretext for a CrackdownJacobin · 14 days agoGet an introductory Jacobin subscription for just $20 Ahead of Saturday’s mass protests in France, the government seemed almost desperate for new violent scenes. Lumping the organized left and protesters in with black bloc groups, it seeks…
  • ‘Blatant Disinformation’: French Newspaper Falsely Reported ‘Terror Gunman’ Had Le Pen LeafletsBreitbart · 14 days agoMarine Le Pen blasted “blatant disinformation” after a French newspaper published, and then deleted, a claim that an alleged terrorist had literature from her party in his car at the time of Friday’s deadly attack. Figures close to French…
  • French fires could engulf the arsonists@arabnews · 14 days agoWatching the mass protests unfold across France, one wonders who is not trying to exploit the social unrest there. The cliche that France since 1789 and later 1968 is a country used to demonstrations and revolutions does not vindicate the…
  • French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest UnrestZeroHedge · 15 days agoAuthored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times, More than 1,300 people were arrested in another day of protests and riots, after a mass march in Paris a day earlier, according to authorities in France. The French Interior Ministry said…
  • Morning Minute: Has Obama Lost His Luster?redstate.com · 15 days agoWell, That '60 Minutes’ Deportation Sob Story Sure Blew Up in a Hurry Well into the 60 Minutes report, they acknowledge that "the U.S. had a right to deport him, but not to Mali." They didn't. They sent him to Ghana. Aside from the entire…
  • France’s National Rally Presents Le Pen as Presidential Candidate for 2027Hungarian Conservative · 15 days agoFrench far-right leader Marine Le Pen formally launched her presidential campaign on Sunday, pledging to restore public order, strengthen national sovereignty and rebuild confidence as the country faces mounting economic and social…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions