French presidential election: who will advance? (Apr 18, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 17, 2028 · $248 today · $9.6K traded · $7.9K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

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The odds

84%Marine Le Pen
  • Marine Le Pen84%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon46%
  • Édouard Philippe18%▲ 11
  • Gabriel Attal11%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann7%
  • Bruno Retailleau6%▲ 1
  • François Hollande5%
  • Dominique de Villepin4%▲ 1
  • Bernard Cazeneuve4%▲ 1
  • Sébastien Lecornu3%
  • Élisabeth Borne3%
  • Jordan Bardella3%
1 more
  • Olivier Faure3%

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 90% on Oct 20, 84% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Marine Le Pen 84% 83¢ 84¢ $1.19 9.4K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 46% 44¢ 48¢ $2.08 2.6K
Édouard Philippe 18% ▲ 11 13¢ 22¢ $4.55 2.4K
Gabriel Attal 11% 10¢ 12¢ $8.33
Raphaël Glucksmann 7% 5¢ 8¢ $12.50 146
Bruno Retailleau 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 10.00
François Hollande 5% 3¢ 7¢ $14.29 2.0K
Dominique de Villepin 4% ▲ 1 1¢ 7¢ $14.29
Bernard Cazeneuve 4% ▲ 1 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 80.00
Sébastien Lecornu 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 3.00
Élisabeth Borne 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Jordan Bardella 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 253
Olivier Faure 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 4.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions