How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? (Before 2029)

Kalshi Economy › Growth & recession Closes Mar 31, 2029 · $4.6K traded · $1.8K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

Embed

The odds

9%At least $1 billion
$-48$3,000

How the odds have moved

At least $1 billion: 6% on Oct 20, 9% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least $1 billion 9% ▼ 1 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 4.2K
At least 50 billion 9% ▲ 3 9¢ 12¢ $8.33 1.1K
At least 100 billion 8% 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 547
At least 150 billion 8% ▲ 1 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 248
At least 200 billion 5% ▼ 1 2¢ 8¢ $12.50 768
At least 250 billion 5% 4¢ 6¢ $17.54 37.3K
At least 500 billion 5% 4¢ 6¢ $18.18 12.5K
At least 750 billion 5% 1¢ 7¢ $13.51 10.1K
At least 1 trillion 5% 4¢ 7¢ $15.15 16.5K
At least 2 trillion 3% 1¢ 6¢ $17.24 10.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

Search ›
  • Trump goes full Trump with his new chief of staff pickCNN · 3 days agoOn Tuesday, Republicans lost Texas in a blue wave driven in part by the defection of Latino voters over President Donald Trump’s heavy-handed mass deportation strategy. On Friday, the architect of that strategy, Stephen Miller, one of…
  • Trump DOJ appointee who led ‘grand conspiracy’ probe of Trump foes resignsNBC News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON — The Donald Trump appointee who headed the office running a so-called “grand conspiracy” investigation looking into federal law enforcement officials who were involved in prior investigations of Trump has resigned. Attorney…
  • ​Amazon's Jeff Bezos wants to blast Trump into spaceCBS News · 3 days agoDecember 8, 2015 / 1:28 PM EST / MoneyWatch Amazon.com (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is reaching stratospheric popularity with only his fourth tweet ever. That's because the billionaire entrepreneur suggested sending Republican candidate…
  • What midterm election 'blue wave' rebuke of Trump means for renewable energyCNBC · 2 days agoAs recently as 2022, many leaders in corporate America and the investment community were singing the praises of ESG — environmental, social, governance — as the foundation of stakeholder capitalism. It didn't take long for that tune to…
  • Trump Admin’s Student Loan Limits Push Borrowers to Private LendersNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 04:15 PM EST New federal student loan limits enacted under President Donald Trump are reshaping how Americans pay for graduate school, and some borrowers are increasingly turning to private lenders because federal aid no…
  • Trump Shares Posts Questioning Midterm Election ResultsNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 01:28 PM EST President Donald Trump shared social media posts Saturday questioning the scale of Democrats’ midterm election gains, days after saying he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results of an election that cost…
  • Trump replaces Susie Wiles with Stephen MillerCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. White House…
  • Why Trump Should Still Talk to North KoreaNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 02:01 PM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 02:04 PM EST Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy As President Donald Trump's party reels from a substantial blow in the midterm elections, the U.S. leader may turn to an unlikely…
  • Iowa voters saw through Trump’s steel promiseThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The government should…
  • Trump blasts the Senate: 'Nothing is getting through'Fox News · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump slams the Senate, saying nothing is getting through and that it is one of the 'biggest' problems. Trump says voters saw these Senate flaws. Trump blasts the Senate: 'Nothing is getting through' President Donald Trump…
  • Trump calls for Justice Department to investigate DemocratsThe Washington Post · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump on Saturday urged the Justice Department to investigate Democrats who have pledged to scrutinize his administration, writing on social media that their actions were “extortion” and “Weaponization and Lawfare at…
  • Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm lossesFox News · 2 days agoRon Johnson, R-Wisc., joins 'Saturday in America' to discuss President Donald Trump's comments to Senate Republicans and a new bid for Senate minority leader. Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm losses Ron Johnson, R-Wisc…

Related markets

All growth & recession ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions