Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
2%chance
Install
Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 223 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Tampa
Search ›- Hurricane Lala weakens to tropical storm but still batters Hawaii with rain and surgesWXLV Hurricane Lala weakens to tropical storm but still batters Hawaii with rain and surges
- Tropical Storm Kyle may form in AtlanticFOX 13 Tampa Bay FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber is watching an area in the Atlantic that has a 50% chance of developing over the next week. Weber says it has some subtropical characteristics, which means if it develops it could become…
- Tropical Storm Fay forms off East CoastFay will bring rain to the East Coast over the next couple days. Tropical Storm Fay has developed along the East Coast on Thursday evening. The low-pressure system was sitting 40 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at the time of…
- Tropical Storm Rosa's remnants likely to bring widespread heavy rain, flash flooding to southwest USRosa will make landfall in Baja California on Monday. As forecast, Hurricane Rosa weakened to Tropical Storm Rosa as it moved over the cooler waters of the northern coast of Mexico on Sunday. However, Rosa will still bring flooding rains…
- Tropical Storm Kyle could form in Atlantic as November storm chances dwindleFOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says Wednesday's forecast calls for humid conditions and a high of 86 degrees. TAMPA, Fla. - A low pressure system swirling in the western Atlantic could organize into a named storm over the coming days…
- Tropical Storm Vance Triggers Flash Floods in Los Cabos, Sweeping Vehicles into the SeaWithin spread beside the ouch sulky this wonderfully and as the well and where supply much hyena so tolerantly recast hawk darn woodpecker. LOS CABOS, Mexico – Heavy rains fueled by Tropical Storm Vance triggered flash floods in the Los…
- Hurricane Season’s Final Month: Rare November Strikes on the Northern Gulf CoastFox 10 News MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) - We are officially in November—the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season. While cooler fall fronts typically signal relief along the coast, history reminds us that tropical systems can still spin up…
- Typhoons batter East Asia as El Niño makes Pacific 'burn with fever'Fishermen return to sea under a crimson sky in August after China's Jiangsu province is hit by Super Typhoon Dolphin Wild weather is a way of life for people living along the coast in the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Japan. But the last…
- 2026 Atlantic hurricane season among least active when measured by ACEFox 10 News MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) - The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is winding down as one of the quietest in modern history, and the numbers tell an impressive story. Despite producing 10 named storms, the season has generated very…
- Florida floods without a hurricane: is El Niño behind the relentless rain?https://latination.com/ Watch on the app Florida’s latest floods raise a troubling question about El Niño and what’s coming next - Severe Florida floods raise serious doubts among experts regarding the destructive force of the El Niño…
- Tampa weather: Weak system brings lower humidity and 70-degree highs next weekFOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says Thursday will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with a high temperature of 86 degrees. TAMPA, Fla. - Relief from muggy air is on the horizon as an approaching cold front promises to push down…
- Tampa bank shooting leaves one dead, other injuredFox News Tampa bank shooting leaves one dead, other injured Fox News' Chanley Painter reports on the deadly shooting that occurred at Citibank headquarters in Tampa, Fla.
Related markets
All hurricanes & storms ›Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
5%chance▲ 1
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Atlantic this year? (Atlantic in 2026)
11%Kyle
- Kyle11%▲ 6
- Fay3%▲ 1
- Leah2%▼ 1
14 more
- Marco1%
- Dolly1%▼ 1
- Edouard1%▼ 1
- Gonzalo1%▼ 1
- Hanna1%▼ 2
- Josephine1%▼ 1
- Nana1%
- Omar1%
- Paulette1%▼ 1
- Rene1%▼ 1
- Sally1%
- Teddy1%
- Vicky1%
- Wilfred1%
Atlantic Tropical Storms (Dec 2026)
9.58median
818
Median 9.58Middle half 9.20 – 9.95
How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
20.7median
1828
Median 20.7
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
14%Above 10
835
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions