Will Trump be impeached? (Before 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2028 · $10.4K today · $1.2M traded · $458K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

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The odds

Sep 28, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 20271%
  • Before Feb 1, 20276%
  • Before Mar 1, 202716%
  • Before Apr 1, 202721%▲ 1
  • Before May 1, 202727%
  • Before Jun 1, 202731%
  • Before Jul 1, 202738%▲ 1
  • Before Aug 1, 202743%▼ 1
  • Before Oct 1, 202751%
  • Before Jan 1, 202862%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jun 1, 2027: 41% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETBefore Jun 1, 2027: 64% → 45%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026 1% $100.00 109.0K
Before Jan 1, 2027 1% 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 2.5M
Before Feb 1, 2027 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 169.7K
Before Mar 1, 2027 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 598.4K
Before Apr 1, 2027 21% ▲ 1 20¢ 21¢ $4.76 79.2K
Before May 1, 2027 27% 26¢ 27¢ $3.70 58.7K
Before Jun 1, 2027 31% 30¢ 31¢ $3.23 43.9K
Before Jul 1, 2027 38% ▲ 1 37¢ 38¢ $2.63 71.4K
Before Aug 1, 2027 43% ▼ 1 42¢ 43¢ $2.33 71.8K
Before Oct 1, 2027 51% 50¢ 51¢ $1.96 54.9K
Before Jan 1, 2028 62% ▲ 1 61¢ 62¢ $1.61 1.5M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment

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  • The Odds: Another Trump Impeachmentcnn.com · 11 h agoCNN News Central's John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examine what polling and prediction markets reveal about the likelihood of another Trump impeachment effort once Democrats take control of Congress in January. The Odds…
  • Trump dismisses prospects of a third impeachmentFox News · 24 h agoFollowing the midterm election results, President Donald Trump dismissed threats of another impeachment effort from Democrats and claimed his past two impeachments ultimately worked to his advantage. Trump dismisses prospects of a third…
  • Trump defends Hegseth ahead of expected impeachment voteCNN · 23 h agoGet the latest on the midterm elections here. • Trump on CBS News: President Donald Trump said in an interview on “60 Minutes” that his sweeping deportation policy was “too tough,” saying it ultimately “hurt” him. He also blamed…
  • Trump continues support for Hegseth despite calls for impeachmentCBS News · 25 h agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump continues support…
  • Pete Hegseth Impeachment Vote Expected as Trump Mutes Iran War EscalationNewsweek · 5 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 11:23 AM EST Republican Rep. Thomas Massie is preparing to force a House vote on articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday. The move could set up a high-stakes confrontation in the House of…
  • Trump says he 'can't imagine' Democrats will impeach him a third timeFox News · 13 h agoFollowing the midterm election results, President Donald Trump dismissed threats of another impeachment effort from Democrats and claimed his past two impeachments ultimately worked to his advantage. President Donald Trump sat down with…
  • Ro Khanna pressed on calls to impeach Hegseth, TrumpFox News · 32 h agoRep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., joins 'The Sunday Briefing' to discuss the incoming House members, future Democratic party priorities and more. Ro Khanna pressed on calls to impeach Hegseth, Trump Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., joins 'The Sunday…
  • Blanche backs Trump call for DOJ inquiry into Democratic impeachment pushWashington Examiner · 33 h agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
  • NY Dem Suozzi warns party against impeaching Trump again: ‘Waste of time’New York Post · 29 h agoLong Island Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) is warning Democrats not to blow their new political momentum by rushing to impeach President Trump, calling the prospect a “waste of time” that would turn off voters. “Democrats have got to not squander…
  • Could Pete Hegseth be impeached?CBS News · 24 h agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Could Pete…
  • Healthcare, tariffs – but not Trump impeachment: Democrats chart next two years of powerthe Guardian · 38 h agoMidterms success gives party potent leverage over Trump – expect tough campaigns of investigating and lawmaking “Costs, chaos, corruption”: after almost two years spent relentlessly criticizing Donald Trump for failing to address those…
  • Hegseth impeachment articles introduced by Rep. MassieCNBC · 6 h agoThe House is likely to vote on the measure this week. Rep. Thomas Massie on Monday introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, triggering a vote in the House of Representatives as early as this week.

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37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
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  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3
Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions