Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election? (Before Oct 28, 2030)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2030 · $2 today · $1K traded · $462 at stake · prices read 81 min ago

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The odds

35%Naftali Bennett
  • Naftali Bennett35%▲ 13
  • Gadi Eisenkot12%▼ 1
  • Avigdor Lieberman12%▲ 2
  • Israel Katz3%▲ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu1%
  • Benny Gantz1%
  • Itamar Ben-Gvir1%
  • Ofer Winter1%
  • Yair Golan1%
  • Yoav Gallant1%

How the odds have moved

Naftali Bennett: 20% on Oct 19, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 8, 4 PM ETNaftali Bennett: 36% → 22%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Nov 6, 12 PM ETNaftali Bennett: 5% → 11%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  3. Oct 28, 2 PM ETNaftali Bennett: 14% → 5%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Naftali Bennett 35% ▲ 13 17¢ 32¢ $3.13 2.1K
Gadi Eisenkot 12% ▼ 1 2¢ 70¢ $1.43 407
Avigdor Lieberman 12% ▲ 2 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 1.1K
Israel Katz 3% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 4.0K
Benjamin Netanyahu 1% 1¢ $100.00 319
Benny Gantz 1% 1¢ $100.00 4.00
Itamar Ben-Gvir 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.1K
Ofer Winter 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.2K
Yair Golan 1% 1¢ $100.00 49.00
Yoav Gallant 1% 1¢ $100.00 20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, Avigdor Lieberman

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions