Next Japanese general election winner?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Feb 7, 2031 · $1.4K traded · $1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

Embed

The odds

75%Liberal Democratic Party
  • Liberal Democratic Party75%▼ 1
  • Democratic Party for the People5%
  • Japan Innovation Party5%
  • Sanseitō5%
  • Constitutional Democratic Party4%
  • Democratic Reform Party3%
  • Team Mirai3%

How the odds have moved

Liberal Democratic Party: 80% on Oct 28, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 29, 12 PM ETLiberal Democratic Party: 80% → 73%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Liberal Democratic Party 75% ▼ 1 73¢ 82¢ $1.22 1.0K
Democratic Party for the People 5% 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 3.0K
Japan Innovation Party 5% 2¢ 8¢ $12.50 3.0K
Sanseitō 5% 2¢ 8¢ $12.50 2.0K
Constitutional Democratic Party 4% 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 2.0K
Democratic Reform Party 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
Team Mirai 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 2.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: House of Representatives, Liberal Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party

Search ›

Related markets

All around the world ›
Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

45%Marine Le Pen
  • Marine Le Pen45%
  • David Lisnard14%▼ 1
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
43 more
  • Édouard Philippe9%▲ 1
  • Christine Lagarde6%▼ 1
  • Teddy Riner3%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann2%
  • Jordan Bardella2%
  • Dominique de Villepin2%
  • François Hollande2%
  • Bruno Retailleau1%▲ 1
  • Gabriel Attal<1%
  • Éric Zemmour<1%
  • Sébastien Lecornu<1%
  • François Baroin<1%
  • Xavier Bertrand<1%
  • Laurent Wauquiez<1%
  • François Ruffin<1%
  • Marine Tondelier<1%
  • Fabien Roussel<1%
  • Olivier Faure<1%
  • Ségolène Royal<1%
  • François Asselineau<1%
  • Clémentine Autain<1%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
  • Michel Barnier<1%
  • Valérie Pécresse<1%
  • François Bayrou<1%
  • Élisabeth Borne<1%
  • Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
  • Jean Castex<1%
  • Gérald Darmanin<1%
  • Carole Delga<1%
  • Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
  • Manuel Bompard<1%
  • Mathilde Panot<1%
  • Sarah Knafo<1%
  • Juan Branco<1%
  • Clémence Guetté<1%
  • Karim Bouamrane<1%
  • Lucie Castets<1%
  • Yannick Jadot<1%
  • Marion Maréchal<1%
  • Natacha Polony<1%
  • Anasse Kazib<1%
  • Sylvain Durif<1%
Elections › Around the world

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

63%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot63%▼ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu25%▲ 4
  • Avigdor Lieberman6%▼ 2
19 more
  • Naftali Bennett3%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Aviv Kohavi<1%
  • Eli Cohen<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Daniel Hagari<1%
Elections › Around the world

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

>99%Luca Niculescu
  • Luca Niculescu>99%▲ 5
  • Mugur Isărescu<1%
  • Mircea Geoană<1%
35 more
  • Anca Dragu<1%
  • Lucian Isar<1%
  • Cătălin Predoiu<1%
  • Sorin Grindeanu<1%
  • George Simion<1%
  • Ilie Bolojan<1%
  • Marcel Ciolacu<1%
  • Alexandru Rafila<1%
  • Sebastian Burduja<1%
  • Ionuț Dumitru<1%
  • Elena Lasconi<1%
  • Cătălin Drulă<1%
  • Vasile Dîncu<1%
  • Dacian Cioloș<1%
  • Emil Boc<1%
  • Dominic Fritz<1%
  • Raluca Turcan<1%
  • Lucian Croitoru<1%
  • Delia Velculescu<1%
  • Nicolae Ciucă<1%
  • Hunor Kelemen<1%
  • Calin Georgescu<1%
  • Radu Burnete<1%
  • Șerban Matei<1%
  • Alexandru Nazare<1%
  • Alexandru Rogobete<1%
  • Dragoș Pîslaru<1%
  • Traian Basescu<1%
  • Dan Motreanu<1%
  • Victor Ponta<1%
  • Ciprian Ciucu<1%
  • Eugen Tomac<1%
  • Siegfried Mureșan<1%
  • Adrian Veștea<1%
  • Leonardo Badea<1%
Elections › Around the world

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

57%Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
  • Lula, Eizenkot, Dems57%▼ 8
  • Lula, Netanyahu, Dems19%▲ 5
  • Lula, Bennett, Dems1%▲ 1
9 more
  • Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps<1%▼ 11
  • Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps<1%▼ 11
  • Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems<1%▼ 12
  • Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems<1%▼ 41
  • Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems<1%▼ 3
  • Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps<1%
  • Lula, Eizenkot, Reps<1%▼ 5
  • Lula, Netanyahu, Reps<1%▼ 5
  • Lula, Bennett, Reps<1%▼ 7

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions