Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $1.5K today · $425K traded · $113K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

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The odds

46%Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Benjamin Netanyahu46%
  • Pedro Sánchez19%▼ 4
  • Sébastien Lecornu9%▼ 8
  • Edi Rama9%
  • Christopher Luxon8%
  • Rodrigo Paz Pereira7%▲ 2
  • Daniel Noboa6%▲ 1
  • Cyril Ramaphosa5%▲ 2
  • Miguel Díaz-Canel5%▼ 1
  • Ahmad al-Sharaa4%
  • Delcy Rodriguez4%▲ 1
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy4%▲ 1
23 more
  • Félix Tshisekedi4%▼ 1
  • Denis Sassou Nguesso4%▼ 1
  • Mette Frederiksen4%
  • Javier Milei4%
  • Giorgia Meloni4%
  • Jens-Frederik Nielsen4%
  • Mohammed bin Salman4%▼ 1
  • Narendra Modi3%
  • Vladimir Putin3%▲ 1
  • Lee Jae Myung3%
  • Friedrich Merz3%
  • Sanae Takaichi3%
  • Kim Jong Un3%
  • Ramzan Kadyrov3%
  • Emmanuel Macron2%
  • Irfaan Ali2%
  • Claudia Sheinbaum2%
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan2%
  • Xi Jinping2%
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva1%
  • Frederik X1%
  • Nayib Bukele1%
  • Mark Carney1%

How the odds have moved

Benjamin Netanyahu: 39% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETBenjamin Netanyahu: 18% → 23%
  2. Oct 27, 11 PM ETBenjamin Netanyahu: 40% → 22%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Benjamin Netanyahu 46% 45¢ 46¢ $2.17 674.0K
Pedro Sánchez 19% ▼ 4 18¢ 20¢ $5.00 68.5K
Sébastien Lecornu 9% ▼ 8 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 5.5K
Edi Rama 9% 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 917
Christopher Luxon 8% 7¢ 9¢ $11.49 18.6K
Rodrigo Paz Pereira 7% ▲ 2 7¢ 7¢ $13.70 5.3K
Daniel Noboa 6% ▲ 1 6¢ 6¢ $15.87 1.6K
Cyril Ramaphosa 5% ▲ 2 2¢ 8¢ $11.90 8.7K
Miguel Díaz-Canel 5% ▼ 1 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 762.5K
Ahmad al-Sharaa 4% 2¢ 6¢ $15.63 28.7K
Delcy Rodriguez 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 6¢ $16.39 25.4K
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 4% ▲ 1 4¢ 4¢ $22.73 145.8K
Félix Tshisekedi 4% ▼ 1 2¢ 6¢ $15.63 1.4K
Denis Sassou Nguesso 4% ▼ 1 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 1.5K
Mette Frederiksen 4% 2¢ 6¢ $17.54 14.4K
Javier Milei 4% 2¢ 6¢ $17.86 6.5K
Giorgia Meloni 4% 3¢ 5¢ $22.22 8.9K
Jens-Frederik Nielsen 4% 2¢ 5¢ $18.52 9.6K
Mohammed bin Salman 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 5¢ $21.28 168.8K
Narendra Modi 3% 3¢ 4¢ $27.78 8.4K
Vladimir Putin 3% ▲ 1 3¢ 3¢ $30.30 824.6K
Lee Jae Myung 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.41 10.1K
Friedrich Merz 3% 3¢ 4¢ $26.32 97.9K
Sanae Takaichi 3% 2¢ 4¢ $26.32 53.3K
Kim Jong Un 3% 2¢ 4¢ $27.03 64.9K
Ramzan Kadyrov 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 8.7K
Emmanuel Macron 2% 2¢ 3¢ $37.04 103.0K
Irfaan Ali 2% 1¢ 4¢ $27.03 611
Claudia Sheinbaum 2% 1¢ 3¢ $37.04 154.3K
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 2% 2¢ 2¢ $52.63 21.1K
Xi Jinping 2% 1¢ 2¢ $55.56 717.8K
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 1% 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 70.7K
Frederik X 1% 1¢ 1¢ $76.92 4.0K
Nayib Bukele 1% 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 6.8K
Mark Carney 1% 0¢ 2¢ $55.56 16.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Benjamin Netanyahu, Pedro Sánchez, Sébastien Lecornu

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions