Lima Mayor winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 4, 2027 · $9 today · $4.1K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

11%Rafael López Aliaga
  • Rafael López Aliaga11%▲ 5
  • Samuel Daza3%
  • Francis Allison2%▲ 1
  • Carlos Bruce2%▲ 1
  • Susel Paredes1%
  • Ricardo Belmont1%
  • Luis Rubio1%
  • Yehude Simon1%
  • Alberto Tejada1%
  • Daniel Urresti1%
  • Oswaldo Vargas1%

How the odds have moved

Rafael López Aliaga: 87% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 6, 10 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 75% → 40%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 28, 9 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 83% → 73%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  3. Oct 21, 7 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 74% → 91%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Rafael López Aliaga 11% ▲ 5 5¢ 20¢ $5.00 31.4K
Samuel Daza 3% 5¢ $20.00 2.3K
Francis Allison 2% ▲ 1 4¢ $25.00 12.4K
Carlos Bruce 2% ▲ 1 4¢ $25.00 8.8K
Susel Paredes 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.2K
Ricardo Belmont 1% 1¢ $100.00 788
Luis Rubio 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.7K
Yehude Simon 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.0K
Alberto Tejada 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.1K
Daniel Urresti 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.8K
Oswaldo Vargas 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Lima Mayor, Rafael López Aliaga, Samuel Daza

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  • Peru Lima Mayor Count Reaches 95.4%The Rio Times · 22 days agoThe Lima mayor count reached 95.4% of tally sheets on Saturday 17 October 2026, with the Renovación Popular list still ahead. Its lead over Avanza País is about one percentage point, and 1,202 disputed sheets remain unresolved. Lima is…
  • López Aliaga Claims 50,000 Lead in Lima VoteThe Rio Times · 21 days agoRafael López Aliaga, the conservative former mayor of Lima, says his own recount of the vote-tally sheets gives him a lead of about 50,000 votes in the race to run Peru’s capital again, Panamericana television reported on Monday 19 October…
  • Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club@LimaYNN · 28 days agohometownstations.com Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally…
  • Peru Starts 119 Vote Recounts as Lima Mayor Row GrowsThe Rio Times · 29 days agoPeru’s electoral courts start recounting disputed ballots on Monday 12 October, eight days after local elections. The recounts come as the race for Lima mayor stays too close to call. For foreign readers, the capital’s result also tests…
  • Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner@LimaYNN · 28 days agohometownstations.com Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally…
  • Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally@LimaYNN · 28 days agohometownstations.com Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club…
  • Best Places to Live in Peru for Expats 2026The Rio Times · 30 days agoFor most American expats, Lima is the best place to live in Peru, followed by Arequipa and Cusco. The trade-off is money and safety: average asking rent in Barranco was about US$1,260 a month in April 2026, and extortion complaints rose…
  • Lima Mayor Race Lead Stays Under One PointThe Rio Times · 31 days ago—Who. The Renovación Popular list, headed in practice by Rafael López Aliaga, and Francis Allison of Avanza País. —What. Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayor count by 45,335 votes, or 0.868 percentage points, with 92.843% of tally…
  • "Did Hitler Mussolini Become Mayor?" ... A Bizarre Turn in Peru's ElectionThe Asia Business Daily · 31 days agoPublished 10 Oct.2026 11:42(KST) A Peruvian politician named "Hitler Mussolini" is drawing attention as he appears poised to win a local mayoral race. Hitler Mussolini Simeon Proles, a mayoral candidate in Queropalca, Peru. Peru21…
  • Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori to Visit Bukele's CECOT Megaprison Amid Security Policy DebateLatin Times · 31 days agoPeru's Senate voted 37 to 11 to authorize President Keiko Fujimori's trip to El Salvador, where she is scheduled to tour CECOT — the sprawling maximum-security compound in Tecoluca that has become the most politically charged prison on the…
  • Peru Senate Panel Ranks 10 for 3 Central Bank SeatsThe Rio Times · 33 days agoThe full Senate will now vote, candidate by candidate in the panel’s order, on who joins Julio Velarde on the board. A Peruvian Senate committee ranked 10 candidates for three seats on the Peru central bank board on Wednesday, 7 October…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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