Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 9.15.
Reaches 597%
Reaches 875%
Reaches 955%
Reaches 1025%
Reaches 1211%
Reaches 1410%
Reaches 168%
Reaches 207%
How the odds have moved
Reaches 8: 64% on Nov 4, 75% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 9, 8 PM ETReaches 8: 65% → 75%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
At least 5
97%
▼ 1
96¢
97¢
$1.03
3.4K
At least 8
75%
▲ 10
72¢
77¢
$1.30
1.6K
At least 9
55%
▲ 2
53¢
56¢
$1.79
5.00
At least 10
25%
▼ 9
21¢
28¢
$3.57
1.6K
At least 12
11%
▼ 7
6¢
15¢
$6.67
At least 14
10%
▼ 6
8¢
11¢
$9.09
1.5K
At least 16
8%
▼ 4
5¢
11¢
$9.09
1.4K
At least 20
7%
4¢
10¢
$10.00
1.4K
At least 25
4%
2¢
6¢
$16.67
1.7K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of HormuzFox News · 29 h ago'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment in the WH and the ongoing tensions in Iran. Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz 'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment…
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Iran says navigational systems destroyed in southern Strait of HormuzMoneycontrol · 20 h agoIranian state media on Monday reported that navigational aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz had been destroyed, adding that no unauthorised vessels had crossed the maritime route overnight. The information was attributed to an…
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US and Iran Consider $8 Billion Deal to Reopen Strait of HormuzCoinpedia Fintech News · 14 h agoQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the…
“Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage,” says Iranian officialKalingaTV · 32 h agoTehran: Secretary of the Expediency Council’s secretariat in Iran Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei on Sunday underlined that the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage in global affairs. Speaking at a meeting on governance, legislative, and…
Iran allows ship carrying fertiliser for SL to pass Strait of Hormuzisland.lk · 23 h agoPakistan pace gamble could play into Sri Lanka’s hands Manamperi, Fernando clinch SLTA YETI Hard Courts titles Mahinda reach Under 19 Division I Tier A final Lahiru’s seven-wicket haul guides Christ King to title Tennis world number one…
IRGC Says Tanker Transit Halted in Southern Strait of Hormuziranwire.com · 14 h agoNumber of Vendors seeking consent or relying on legitimate interest: 182 These means of processing can be used solely in pursuit of one or several purposes for which you are given a choice in this notice. Number of Vendors seeking consent…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions