Who will the next Pope be? (Before 2070)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 1, 2070 · $10 today · $5.8K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

7%Luis Antonio Tagle
  • Luis Antonio Tagle7%
  • Pietro Parolin5%
  • Pierbattista Pizzaballa4%
  • Matteo Zuppi3%
  • Peter Erdo3%
  • Fridolin Ambongo3%
  • Anders Arborelius3%

How the odds have moved

Luis Antonio Tagle: 13% on Oct 20, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Luis Antonio Tagle 7% 6¢ 7¢ $13.51 25.1K
Pietro Parolin 5% 4¢ 6¢ $18.18 25.9K
Pierbattista Pizzaballa 4% 3¢ 5¢ $22.22 20.1K
Matteo Zuppi 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.64 17.9K
Peter Erdo 3% 2¢ 3¢ $30.30 22.9K
Fridolin Ambongo 3% 2¢ 3¢ $30.30 19.3K
Anders Arborelius 3% 2¢ 4¢ $27.78 17.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Pope, Luis Antonio Tagle, Pietro Parolin

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  • Bob Dylan meets Pope Leo at the Vatican in a private audienceCBS News · 5 days agoPhotos released by the Vatican show the Minnesota-born singer-songwriter in a black hooded sweatshirt and gloves with Pope Leo XIV, a Chicago native, in the pope’s office. The Vatican didn’t say what they discussed. Bob Dylan meets Pope…
  • Bob Dylan meets Pope Leo XIV in a hoodieThe Washington Post · 5 days agoWhen people take extended time off to care for a new child or ailing family member, it can be a hard and long process to return to paid work. Here are four key things to consider, according to the experts we interviewed for a story: 1…
  • Cardinal Parolin expresses hopes for cooperation after US midterm electionsVatican News · 5 days agoThere will certainly be “changes” following the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections, said Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, on Thursday, November 5. “We hope that reason and common sense will prevail” and that we may…
  • Pope Leo’s mail-in ballot received, Will County Clerk saysCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Pope Leo’s mail-in ballot…
  • OPINION: Anatomy of the Oleshky EvacuationKyiv Post · 6 days agoIn brief: Forestalling an even worse humanitarian disaster in Oleshky was a very complex operation. Here is a detailed look at the role of the International Human Rights Commission in the operation, which can serve as template for future…
  • Landmark voyageFra Noi · 6 days agoIn our ongoing efforts to preserve and celebrate our Italian-American heritage, values and traditions, the Conference of Presidents of Major Italian American Organizations (COPOMIAO) recently traveled to Italy for important meetings at the…
  • Vatican PopePost Register · 5 days agoPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Pope Leo XIV leaves at the end of a mass he celebrated in memory of cardinals and bishops who died during the past year, in St. Peter's Basilica, at…
  • APTOPIX Vatican PopeTelegraphHerald.com · 5 days agoTelegraphHerald.com Pope Leo XIV, right, and the singer and Nobel prize winner Bob Dylan, left, shake hands during a meeting in the Vatican on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026. (Vatican Media/LaPresse via AP) Dubuque Rescue Mission closes 2nd…
  • Pope Leo XIV Becomes 1st Pope To Vote In US Midterm ElectionsThe Trumpet Newspaper Nigeria · 6 days agoPope Leo XIV has reportedly cast a mail-in ballot in the United States midterm elections, potentially becoming the first pope to vote in a secular democratic election. The Vatican confirmed on Friday that the pontiff had submitted his…
  • Should the Pope vote?The Spectator · 5 days agoPope Leo, an American, voted in the US midterms. I am surprised that a foreign head of state can do this, but presumably he is well advised – though not, on such matters, infallible. Paragraph 2240 of The Catechism of the Catholic Church…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions