New Zealand general election winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $75.6K today · $166K traded · $148K at stake · prices read just now

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The odds

91%National
  • National91%▼ 1
  • Labour7%▲ 2
  • Opportunity1%
  • Green<1%
  • NZ First<1%
  • Te Pāti Māori<1%
  • ACT<1%

How the odds have moved

National: 41% on Oct 20, 91% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 7 PM ETNational: 44% → 52%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
National 91% ▼ 1 90¢ 94¢ $1.07 166.8K
Labour 7% ▲ 2 6¢ 8¢ $12.20 175.7K
Opportunity 1% 1¢ $100.00 498
Green <1% 1¢ 1.0K
NZ First <1% 1¢ 1.0K
Te Pāti Māori <1% 1¢ 1.0K
ACT <1% 0¢ 1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Zealand

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions