Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? (Before Jan 1, 2035)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 8, 2035 · $248 traded · $223 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

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The odds

22%Nigel Farage
  • Nigel Farage22%▼ 1
  • Kemi Badenoch22%▼ 1
  • Shabana Mahmood17%
  • Robert Jenrick6%▼ 1
  • Angela Rayner4%
  • Zia Yusuf4%▼ 1
  • Rupert Lowe4%
  • Al Carns4%
  • Jess Phillips4%▼ 1
  • John Healey3%
  • Richard Tice3%
  • Jonathan Reynolds3%
17 more
  • Wes Streeting3%
  • Louise Haigh3%
  • No new person3%
  • Yvette Cooper3%
  • Ed Miliband3%
  • Bridget Phillipson3%
  • Lisa Nandy3%
  • Mel Stride3%
  • Boris Johnson3%
  • Pat McFadden3%
  • Lucy Powell3%
  • Emma Reynolds3%
  • James Cleverly3%
  • Rachel Reeves3%
  • Ed Davey3%
  • Keir Starmer2%
  • Darren Jones2%

How the odds have moved

Nigel Farage: 20% on Oct 19, 22% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Nigel Farage 22% ▼ 1 18¢ 25¢ $4.00 190
Kemi Badenoch 22% ▼ 1 19¢ 24¢ $4.17 56.00
Shabana Mahmood 17% 12¢ 21¢ $4.76 1.0K
Robert Jenrick 6% ▼ 1 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 10.00
Angela Rayner 4% 8¢ $12.50 3.00
Zia Yusuf 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 7¢ $14.29
Rupert Lowe 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 496
Al Carns 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67
Jess Phillips 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.00
John Healey 3% 6¢ $16.67
Richard Tice 3% 6¢ $16.67 24.00
Jonathan Reynolds 3% 6¢ $16.67
Wes Streeting 3% 5¢ $20.00
Louise Haigh 3% 5¢ $20.00
No new person 3% 5¢ $20.00
Yvette Cooper 3% 5¢ $20.00
Ed Miliband 3% 5¢ $20.00
Bridget Phillipson 3% 5¢ $20.00
Lisa Nandy 3% 5¢ $20.00
Mel Stride 3% 5¢ $20.00
Boris Johnson 3% 5¢ $20.00
Pat McFadden 3% 5¢ $20.00 1.00
Lucy Powell 3% 5¢ $20.00
Emma Reynolds 3% 5¢ $20.00
James Cleverly 3% 5¢ $20.00
Rachel Reeves 3% 5¢ $20.00
Ed Davey 3% 5¢ $20.00
Keir Starmer 2% 4¢ $25.00
Darren Jones 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 656

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister, Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions