Adrián de la Garza Santos: 18% on Oct 19, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 20, 12 PM ETAdrián de la Garza Santos: 18% → 25%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Adrián de la Garza Santos
27%
▼ 1
27¢
34¢
$2.94
574
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú
15%
▼ 1
15¢
22¢
$4.55
704
Clara Luz Flores Carrales
11%
▼ 1
10¢
17¢
$5.88
606
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
6%
▼ 1
4¢
12¢
$8.33
458
Andrés Mijes Llovera
2%
6¢
$16.67
675
Carlos de la Fuente Flores
2%
6¢
$16.67
225
Félix Arratia Cruz
2%
6¢
$16.67
550
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez
2%
6¢
$16.67
450
Jesús Alberto Elizondo
2%
6¢
$16.67
225
Raúl Lozano Caballero
2%
6¢
$16.67
225
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo
2%
6¢
$16.67
4.3K
Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García
2%
6¢
$16.67
450
César Garza Arredondo
2%
6¢
$16.67
225
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla
2%
5¢
$20.00
450
Arturo Salinas Garza
2%
5¢
$20.00
225
Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada
2%
5¢
$20.00
450
Héctor García García
2%
5¢
$20.00
451
Judith Díaz Delgado
2%
5¢
$20.00
450
Martha Herrera González
2%
5¢
$20.00
451
Waldo Fernández González
2%
5¢
$20.00
1.5K
David de la Peña Marroquín
2%
5¢
$20.00
451
Annia Gómez Cárdenas
2%
4¢
$25.00
225
Daniel Carrillo Martínez
2%
4¢
$25.00
225
Miguel Flores Serna
2%
4¢
$25.00
225
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nuevo León Governor, Mariana Rodríguez Cantú, Clara Luz Flores Carrales
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions