Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand? (Before Mar 15, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 15, 2027 · $1 today · $3.4K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 73 min ago

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The odds

93%National
  • National93%
  • New Zealand First82%
  • Opportunity73%▲ 58
  • ACT63%
  • Labour37%
  • Te Pāti Māori21%
  • Greens4%

How the odds have moved

National: 54% on Oct 19, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
National 93% 52¢ 97¢ $1.03 884
New Zealand First 82% 9¢ 99¢ $1.01 1.1K
Opportunity 73% ▲ 58 16¢ 72¢ $1.39 1.3K
ACT 63% 7¢ $1.59 395
Labour 37% 10¢ 44¢ $2.27 737
Te Pāti Māori 21% 3¢ 92¢ $1.09 513
Greens 4% 4¢ 69¢ $1.45 1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Zealand, New Zealand First

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions