New Zealand Prime Minister after the election? (Before Nov 7, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 7, 2027 · $28 today · $12.4K traded · $4.9K at stake · prices read 54 min ago

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The odds

87%Christopher Luxon
  • Christopher Luxon87%
  • Chris Hipkins6%▼ 3
  • David Seymour2%▲ 1
  • Chlöe Swarbrick1%
  • Winston Peters<1%
  • Marama Davidson<1%
  • Debbie Ngarewa-Packer<1%
  • Rawiri Waititi<1%
  • Qiulae Wong<1%
  • Nicola Willis<1%
  • Chris Bishop<1%
  • Erica Stanford<1%
2 more
  • Simeon Brown<1%
  • Mark Mitchell<1%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Luxon: 52% on Oct 20, 87% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 5, 9 PM ETChristopher Luxon: 47% → 52%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Christopher Luxon 87% 87¢ 90¢ $1.11 13.5K
Chris Hipkins 6% ▼ 3 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 5.1K
David Seymour 2% ▲ 1 5¢ $20.00 1.8K
Chlöe Swarbrick 1% 3¢ $33.33 1.4K
Winston Peters <1% 1¢ $100.00 1.0K
Marama Davidson <1% 1¢ $100.00 871
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer <1% 1¢ $100.00 871
Rawiri Waititi <1% 1¢ $100.00 871
Qiulae Wong <1% 1¢ $100.00 871
Nicola Willis <1% 1¢ $100.00 1.0K
Chris Bishop <1% 1¢ $100.00 1.1K
Erica Stanford <1% 1¢ $100.00 932
Simeon Brown <1% 1¢ $100.00 871
Mark Mitchell <1% 1¢ $100.00 871

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Zealand Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, Chris Hipkins

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions