Poland general election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 10, 2028 · $1.5K traded · $495 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

51%Law and Justice
  • Law and Justice51%▲ 1
  • Civic Coalition42%▲ 1
  • Confederation3%
  • The Left2%
  • Third Way2%

How the odds have moved

Law and Justice: 45% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Law and Justice 51% ▲ 1 50¢ 58¢ $1.72 2.2K
Civic Coalition 42% ▲ 1 42¢ 48¢ $2.08 676
Confederation 3% 0¢ 6¢ $18.18 81.00
The Left 2% 0¢ 4¢ $23.26 56.00
Third Way 2% 0¢ 4¢ $23.81 1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Poland, Civic Coalition

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  • Poland’s Civic Coalition leads with 27.2% in new poll — InteriaUA.NEWS · 5 days agoIn Poland, the Civic Coalition took first place in a new United Surveys by IBRiS poll commissioned by Wirtualna Polska: 27.2% of respondents said they were ready to vote for it. This is 2.5 percentage points less than in the survey…
  • In Poland, PiS and Confederation nearly tied in CBOS poll — RMF24UA.NEWS · 3 days agoUA.NEWS In Poland, PiS and Confederation nearly tied in CBOS poll — RMF24 In Poland, the Civic Coalition could win 28.1% of the vote in parliamentary elections if they were held in early November. It would be followed by the Law and…
  • Has Poland become a banana republic?The Spectator Australia · 6 days agoFirst, some context. Back in 2015, the governing coalition – which included current Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party, Civic Platform – elected five judges to Poland’s constitutional tribunal when there were only openings for three. The…
  • Szydło initiated European Parliament debate on Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal — RMF24UA.NEWS · 5 days agoUA.NEWS Szydło initiated European Parliament debate on Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal — RMF24 In Poland, Beata Szydło, a Member of the European Parliament from the Law and Justice party and former prime minister, initiated the convening…
  • Poland Simmering Awayhotair.com · 3 days agoThe standoff between populist Polish president Karol Nawrocki and the European Union creature at heart, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has been heating up ever so slowly over the course of the week, as both sides claim the rightful…
  • Poland Data Centers ProtestsGoshen News · 3 days agoGoshen News Protesters hold signs reading "What is the true COST of this investment?”, “Let’s not let the world drown in AI slop!” and “Water consumption: 1 data centre = 3,000 people. And they tell US to save water?!” during a…
  • German Shadows over PolandExaudi · 4 days agoWhen Foreign Shadows Manipulate Democracy: The Hidden Pulse of the German Press in Poland’s Political Future The media coverage of events related to the occupation of the Constitutional Tribunal by German newspapers is biased and…
  • What’s Going On in Poland?National Review · 7 days agoNational Review
  • Poland: dispute over constitutional court escalateseurotopics.net · 4 days agoThe row over the constitutional court is worrying, and not just for Poland, says The Irish Times: TVNet examines the dispute over the constitutional court in the wider political context: The example of Poland shows how quickly a democracy…
  • The politics of Poland’s judicial crisis台北時報 · 4 days agoBy the time the democratic opposition led by Tusk returned to power in 2023, more than 2,000 people had been appointed or promoted to judicial posts through an unconstitutional procedure repeatedly condemned by Polish and European courts…
  • Polish Sejm passes law on benefits for families of military personnel and uniformed services — RMF24UA.NEWS · 3 days agoThe Polish Sejm has passed a law on the Uniformed Services Family Card, providing for a system of benefits for military personnel, officers of formations subordinate to the ministries of defence and internal affairs, as well as their…
  • Poland--the Big Unknown. Anything might happenCanada Free Press · 3 days agoBy Alek Rybczynski, CFP's Poland ReporterNovember 5, 2026 We thought the age of barbarism was behind us, but it turns out the barbarians have seized power World News | Comments | Reader Friendly | Subscribe | Email Us Editor’s Note: A…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions