Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $1 today · $34.5K traded · $6.9K at stake · prices read 53 min ago

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The odds

3%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 3% 3¢ 4¢ $28.57 1.1M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Reza Pahlavi

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  • Iran's Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi Wins 'Freedom Prize' In GermanyABP Live English · 2 days agoIranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi on Saturday received a "Freedom Prize" in Frankfurt in the central German state of Hesse. Some 18,000 people rallied to show support for Reza Pahlavi, according to a police statement. The event was…
  • Reza Pahlavi in Brussels: the MR defends firmness towards the Iranian regimemr.be · 3 days agoPress ENTER to search or ESC to close Joining means having a say in the decisions, locally as well as federally. The MR firmly stands by its support for those who want to turn the page on the mullahs’ regime. On Thursday 5 November, the…
  • 'Our fight will go on until victory,' Reza Pahlavi tells 'Post' ahead of Freedom PrizThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 4 days agoWhen Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi takes the stage in Frankfurt on Saturday to accept the Friedrich Naumann Foundation’s 2026 Freedom Prize, he will receive an award that, for the first time in its two-decade history, has been bestowed on an…
  • Hostility toward the Reza Pahlavi dynasty and the sinister triangle of terrorThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 5 days agoThis year, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation is awarding its “Freedom Prize” to the “Iranian people,” with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the heir to Iran’s monarchy and a popular, influential, respected, and credible Iranian figure, accepting…
  • Iran executes three more protesters in KarajIran International · 45 h agoIran has executed three men arrested during January protests in Karaj, west of Tehran, after the Supreme Court upheld their death sentences, the judiciary said early Sunday. Hassan Divband, Hamid Kazemi and Reza Zanganeh had been sentenced…
  • Trump’s election shock; what does Iran want from the United States?The Business Standard · 33 h agoA lifetime behind bars for two rescued leopards Mitsubishi Xpander ECO: Familiar practicality, lower running costs Bashpukur: A ghost town built to be acquired India’s fastest fall in poverty: Beyond trends More Videos from TBS Why is the…
  • Son of Iran’s ousted shah takes controversial prize@arabnews · 3 days agoFRANKFURT: The son of the ousted shah of Iran on Saturday received a “Freedom Prize” in Frankfurt awarded to the Iranian people in a ceremony that critics said was illegitimate. Some 18,000 demonstrators, many chanting support and waving…
  • United States Plans For An Attack On IranPopularResistance.Org · 3 days agoBut all signs point to an imminent attack. “Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is…
  • Iran’s exiled prince accepts German Freedom Prize for Iranians as thousands rallyIran International · 3 days agoIran’s exiled prince Reza Pahlavi accepted Germany’s Freedom Prize on behalf of the Iranian people in Frankfurt on Saturday, the first time the award has gone to a nation rather than a person, as tens of thousands of Iranians rallied in…
  • Exiled Prince Pahlavi says Iran’s regime is more fragile than everIran International · 33 h agoIran's exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi said the Islamic Republic was more fragile and divided than ever, arguing that mounting economic pressures were undermining its ability to sustain its security apparatus and regional proxies. "The regime…
  • Bouchez defends inviting son of former Iranian Shah to Parliament@BrusselsTimes · 3 days agoMR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez said he was “surprised” by criticism of his Thursday meeting in parliament with Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former shah. Belgium’s Foreign Affairs Ministry had advised against his visit. Bouchez had…
  • United States: U.S. Sanctions Cripple Financial Networks Sustaining the Iranian RegimeThe St Kitts Nevis Observer · 3 days agoThe St Kitts Nevis Observer United States: U.S. Sanctions Cripple Financial Networks Sustaining the Iranian Regime The United States is taking action today against eight digital asset service providers that help the Iranian regime evade…

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