Scarborough North by-election winner?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 28, 2028 · $386 traded · $28 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

91%Liberal Party
  • Liberal Party91%
  • Conservative Party6%
  • NDP3%

How the odds have moved

Liberal Party: 92% on Oct 19, 91% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 5, 7 PM ETLiberal Party: 93% → 86%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Liberal Party 91% 89¢ 95¢ $1.05 420
Conservative Party 6% 2¢ 10¢ $10.00
NDP 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Scarborough North, Liberal Party, Conservative Party

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions