Which Senate races will be within 1 point? (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $9 today · $578 traded · $414 at stake · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

5%Alaska

Alaska5%▲ 4
South Carolina4%
Iowa3%
Maine2%
Michigan2%
Ohio (special)2%
Kansas1%
Nebraska1%
Florida (special)1%
New Hampshire1%
North Carolina1%
Texas1%

How the odds have moved

Alaska: 14% on Oct 19, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 3, 10 PM ETAlaska: 12% → 6%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Alaska	5%	▲ 4	2¢	8¢	$12.50	2.7K
South Carolina	4%			7¢	$14.29	5.1K
Iowa	3%			5¢	$20.00	3.9K
Maine	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.4K
Michigan	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	3.0K
Ohio (special)	2%			3¢	$33.33	627
Kansas	1%			2¢	$50.00	944
Nebraska	1%			2¢	$50.00	663
Florida (special)	1%			2¢	$50.00	594
New Hampshire	1%			2¢	$50.00	215
North Carolina	1%			2¢	$50.00	1.4K
Texas	1%			1¢	$100.00	5.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate, South Carolina

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How Annie Andrews won in South CarolinaNBC News · 3 days agoSteve Kornacki breaks down the midterm election in South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews is projected by NBC News to win the Senate seat — and how evangelical Christian counties that are reliably red, but where late Senator Lindsey…
Democrat Nancy Lacore wins election to U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional DistrictThe Washington Post · 3 days agoThe Washington Post Democrat Nancy Lacore won election Friday to the U.S. House of Representatives representing South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, defeating Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt
How did Republicans lose a Senate seat in fireball-red South Carolina?the Guardian · 5 days agoBitter postmortem under way as party comes to terms with Darline Graham’s stunning loss to Annie Andrews It’s not that Shane Brown somehow didn’t know about the US Senate election in South Carolina. Nor was he unaware that the outcome of…
South Carolina U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News South Carolina U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
South Carolina Republicans Fracture Over Stunning UpsetPolitical Wire · 3 days ago“As Republicans sift through the wreckage of a historic midterm drubbing, one state has especially rankled them: South Carolina,” the New York Times reports. “It was among the most conservative states to elect a Democratic senator in a sea…
Republicans Lose Trump +13 South Carolina Seat To Admiral Fired By Hegseth100PercentFedUp.com · 2 days agoRepublicans just lost a South Carolina congressional district that President Trump carried by 13 points. Retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore defeated Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District…
Split-ticket voting emerges as key factor in South Carolina’s historic Senate raceWSOC TV · 3 days agoWSOC TV Split-ticket voting emerges as key factor in South Carolinaâs historic Senate race Family seeks answers after truck driver shot dead in Steele Creek Hornets hope to snap 5-game losing streak âBreak through that stigmaâ: Teen…
Dem Flips South Carolina Senate Seat - The Arena with Kasie Hunt - Podcast on CNN PodcastsCNN · 5 days agoCNN The Arena with Kasie Hunt Kasie Hunt brings key players into the arena for sharp analysis and panel discussion on the latest news in politics and culture. Back to episodes list Continuing Midterm Election coverage with Dana Bash and…
South Carolina’s Black vote turned out at presidential levels. Can Democrats stay engaged for 2028?Yahoo News · 2 days agoCOLUMBIA — Nearly as many Black voters cast a ballot in South Carolina's Nov. 3 midterm elections as did in the 2024 presidential contest, a turnout level that helped power Democrats into upset wins at most every level of government. Their…
Can a car manufacturer like Scout Motors sell vehicles directly to consumers in South Carolina, bypassing franchised dealers?Ezel · 2 days agoRequested by The Honorable Shane Massey, Member, South Carolina Senate. Senator Shane Massey asked the South Carolina Attorney General whether a car maker, distributor, or wholesaler can sell directly to South Carolina buyers and skip the…
Andrews says South Carolina result shows Republicans rejected Washington-picked candidateCNN · 5 days agoCNN Andrews says South Carolina result shows Republicans rejected Washington-picked candidate Democratic Senator-elect Annie Andrews said that a rift between Republicans in her state — and in the country — was a factor in her election

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK1%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 4
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Warner<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%▼ 1
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 5
Brian Schatz1%

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader? (2027)

87%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer87%▼ 5
Chris Van Hollen11%▲ 6
Brian Schatz1%

3 more

John Thune<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
John Barrasso<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTexas Secretary of State, Elections Division, Alaska Division of Elections, Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$578 (25,968 contracts)

Today$9

At stake$414

In the news2,707 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions