Which November Swiss referendums will pass? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 29, 2027 · $3 today · $2.2K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 61 min ago

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The odds

75%Fireworks Initiative
  • Fireworks Initiative75%
  • War Materiel Act amendment40%▲ 1
  • Fair taxes for married couples25%
  • AHV VAT financing24%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Fireworks Initiative: 54% on Oct 20, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 7, 9 PM ETFireworks Initiative: 71% → 76%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Fireworks Initiative 75% 71¢ 79¢ $1.27 1.5K
War Materiel Act amendment 40% ▲ 1 36¢ 43¢ $2.33 1.1K
Fair taxes for married couples 25% 22¢ 28¢ $3.57 1.1K
AHV VAT financing 24% ▲ 1 20¢ 27¢ $3.70 1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Swiss, Fireworks Initiative

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions