Will Taiwan's Nuclear-Free Homeland repeal referendum pass? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 27, 2027 · $1 traded · $1 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

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The odds

80%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 79% on Oct 19, 80% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 80% ▲ 1 76¢ 83¢ $1.20 1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan, Taiwan's Nuclear-Free Homeland

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions