Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.6K today · $1.8K traded · $1.7K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

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The odds

99%Kash Patel
  • Kash Patel99%▲ 27
  • Pete Hegseth89%▲ 9
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.89%▲ 5
  • Dan Caine89%▲ 67
  • Brad Cooper86%▲ 58
  • Marco Rubio72%▲ 5
  • Howard Lutnick67%▲ 5
  • Tom Homan67%▲ 47
  • Linda McMahon67%▲ 38
  • Scott Bessent62%▲ 5
  • Doug Burgum62%▲ 42
  • Steven Cheung44%▲ 12
18 more
  • John Ratcliffe36%▲ 17
  • Steve Witkoff35%▲ 5
  • Mike Huckabee35%▲ 10
  • Todd Blanche33%▲ 5
  • Kevin Hassett31%▲ 5
  • Peter Navarro30%▲ 5
  • Bill Pulte29%▲ 5
  • Chris Wright29%▲ 5
  • Christopher Landau28%▲ 5
  • Doug Collins27%▲ 5
  • Sean Duffy26%▲ 5
  • Lee Zeldin23%▲ 5
  • Stephen Miller23%▲ 3
  • Russell Vought22%▲ 5
  • Brooke Rollins22%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz21%▲ 5
  • Brendan Carr19%▲ 5
  • Mike Waltz18%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Kash Patel: 72% on Nov 8, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Kash Patel 99% ▲ 27 61¢ $1.01 1.00
Pete Hegseth 89% ▲ 9 84¢ 97¢ $1.03 413
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 89% ▲ 5 2¢ 97¢ $1.03 1.00
Dan Caine 89% ▲ 67 50¢ 72¢ $1.39 698
Brad Cooper 86% ▲ 58 45¢ 68¢ $1.47 419
Marco Rubio 72% ▲ 5 64¢ 94¢ $1.06 34.00
Howard Lutnick 67% ▲ 5 8¢ 97¢ $1.03 200
Tom Homan 67% ▲ 47 39¢ 83¢ $1.20 38.00
Linda McMahon 67% ▲ 38 32¢ 83¢ $1.20 23.00
Scott Bessent 62% ▲ 5 8¢ 97¢ $1.03 2.00
Doug Burgum 62% ▲ 42 48¢ 97¢ $1.03 53.00
Steven Cheung 44% ▲ 12 39¢ 72¢ $1.39 200
John Ratcliffe 36% ▲ 17 20¢ 92¢ $1.09 6.00
Steve Witkoff 35% ▲ 5 43¢ 94¢ $1.06
Mike Huckabee 35% ▲ 10 29¢ 94¢ $1.06 355
Todd Blanche 33% ▲ 5 37¢ 76¢ $1.32
Kevin Hassett 31% ▲ 5 51¢ 94¢ $1.06
Peter Navarro 30% ▲ 5 34¢ 93¢ $1.08
Bill Pulte 29% ▲ 5 28¢ 89¢ $1.12 13.00
Chris Wright 29% ▲ 5 31¢ 93¢ $1.08
Christopher Landau 28% ▲ 5 21¢ 93¢ $1.08
Doug Collins 27% ▲ 5 25¢ 93¢ $1.08
Sean Duffy 26% ▲ 5 32¢ 93¢ $1.08
Lee Zeldin 23% ▲ 5 3¢ $4.35 4.00
Stephen Miller 23% ▲ 3 49¢ 77¢ $1.30 129
Russell Vought 22% ▲ 5 16¢ 92¢ $1.09
Brooke Rollins 22% ▼ 5 6¢ 50¢ $2.00 24.00
Mehmet Oz 21% ▲ 5 43¢ 84¢ $1.19
Brendan Carr 19% ▲ 5 44¢ 76¢ $1.32
Mike Waltz 18% ▼ 4 6¢ 74¢ $1.35

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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All trump administration ›
Politics › Trump administration

Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?

74%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.74%▲ 2
  • Stephen Miller74%▲ 56
  • Mehmet Oz69%▲ 53
18 more
  • Todd Blanche66%▲ 45
  • Kash Patel65%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth61%▼ 12
  • Howard Lutnick53%▲ 8
  • Marco Rubio50%▼ 13
  • Scott Bessent41%▲ 1
  • Steve Witkoff32%▲ 9
  • Doug Burgum32%▲ 4
  • Steven Cheung27%▲ 5
  • Brad Cooper25%▲ 5
  • Brooke Rollins22%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee21%▲ 5
  • Dan Caine20%▲ 5
  • Christopher Landau18%▼ 1
  • Tom Homan17%▲ 5
  • Russell Vought16%▲ 5
  • Bill Pulte16%
  • Mike Waltz16%
KalshiCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $1.4K today
Politics › Trump administration

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 2
Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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