Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/16-10/23) (10/16 to 10/23)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closed Oct 23 · $266 today · $774 traded · $277 at stake

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Settled NoA day before, traders gave it 97%.

The last odds before it closed

3%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 23% on Oct 19, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 1 PM ET24% → 2%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✗ Yes 3% 30.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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  • Tracking Trump: Hegseth impeachment proceedings; Trump questions midterm results; Trump bone spurs statue; and moreThe Washington Post · 5 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A GOP lawmaker kicked…
  • Trump: New Iran attacks "quite unlikely"Axios · 4 h agoPresident Trump said Monday that a renewed military campaign against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary."Why it matters: Trump stopped short of saying the war was over, but his comments on Truth Social and at an…
  • Russia and Ukraine Keep Ignoring Donald TrumpNewsweek · 4 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:27 PM EST Russia and Ukraine traded strikes on each other's energy infrastructure into Monday, targeting sites President Donald Trump had decreed last month—without Kyiv and Moscow's agreement—to be off limits. The…
  • Democrats threaten investigations into several Trump officialsFox News · 3 h agoFormer Deputy Assistant Attorney General John Yoo analyzes Democrats' threats to investigate officials in President Donald Trump's administration on 'The Will Cain Show.' Yoo weighs in on the ... Democrats threaten investigations into…
  • The Odds: Another Trump Impeachmentcnn.com · 11 h agoCNN News Central's John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examine what polling and prediction markets reveal about the likelihood of another Trump impeachment effort once Democrats take control of Congress in January. The Odds…
  • Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with IranFox Business · 6 h ago'The Big Money Show' debates President Donald Trump's strategy regarding the conflict in Iran as he signals restraint and the impact of the war and gas prices on the midterm elections. Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with Iran 'The…
  • Trump Administration Expands Federal Effort to Combat Drone ThreatsNewsweek · 3 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 03:41 PM EST The announcement by the Department of Transportation (DOT) on Monday establishes an interagency process for evaluating and deploying technology that can detect, track, disable or take control of unauthorized…
  • Trump says FBI is investigating Nvidia CEO Jensen HuangCBS News · 3 h agoPresident Trump said Monday that the FBI is looking into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang over allegations Huang was the target of a Chinese intelligence effort. CBS News' Olivia Rinaldi reports and Ian Duncan, tech policy reporter at the…
  • Danielle Alvarez Surges to Favorite for Trump Press SecretaryNewsweek · 4 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:10 PM EST Former senior adviser to President Donald Trump, Danielle Alvarez, has emerged as the front-runner on the prediction market Kalshi to become the next White House press secretary. As of Monday morning, Alvarez…
  • Trump casts doubt on Democrats’ historic midterm winsThe Washington Post · 8 h agoNearly a week after Democrats decisively took back the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, President Donald Trump is casting doubt on the results. “Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls…
  • Lauren Boebert, Trump Ally, Loses Colorado House Race, CNN ProjectsNewsweek · 3 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 03:29 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 03:44 PM EST Republican incumbent Representative and longtime Trump ally Lauren Boebert is projected to lose her reelection bid for Colorado's 4th Congressional District to Democratic challenger…

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All trump administration ›
Politics › Trump administration

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3
Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions