Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
The odds
4%Above 91,500 MW
91,000100,000
How the odds have moved
Above 91,500 MW: 4% on Oct 4, 4% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 91,500 MW | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 260.5K | |
| Above 92,000 MW | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 232.2K | |
| Above 92,500 MW | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 95.3K | |
| Above 93,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 156.6K | |
| Above 94,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 128.5K | |
| Above 96,000 MW | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 126.5K | |
| Above 98,000 MW | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 55.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas ERCOT
Search ›- Virtual insanity | Factor This BriefVirtual power plants (VPPs) are having a moment. While utility-scale projects wade through equipment backlogs and the mire of interconnection queues, distributed energy resource (DER) aggregation is gaining traction and scaling fast. And…
- Texas grid audit stalls $5B-$7B bond sale for Anthropic data centerEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- DataBank's CEO on the Texas data center moratorium and the impact of the US midterm electionsNew regulatory requirements could filter out rogue projects, Raul Martynek says Texas and regulation do not ordinarily go hand-in-hand, but these are not ordinary times in the data center industry. The backlash against the AI data center…
- US power grid reliability concerns spark Texas data center moratorium talksEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- New nickel-cobalt-aluminum batteries promise 1 GWh of storage for US power gridThe batteries will be produced at a plant in Indiana and delivered by the end of the year. South Korean battery giant Samsung SDI has signed a new agreement to supply the US with one gigawatt-hour (GWh) of batteries that feature 17 percent…
- TCEQ suspends stormwater approvals, other data center-related reviews appear unchanged after watchdog reportThe Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has temporarily shut down its online application system and apparently suspended the approval of storm and wastewater permits for several projects related to data centers, after a report…
- Bloom Energy says solid oxide fuel cells can close the gap between surging U.S. data center power demand and slow grid expansion timelinesU.S. electricity demand is growing faster than the grid can keep up. According to McKinsey & Company, American IT load is expected to nearly double — from roughly 80 GW in 2025 to 150 GW by 2028 — driven largely by AI data center…
- Electricity Monthly UpdateTexas (ERCOT) daily peak demand in August 2026 came close to, but did not exceed, the record high set in July 2026. Net electricity generation in the United States increased 6.8% compared to August 2025. Total U.S. coal stockpiles…
- Windtech International - Wind generation in the USA forecast to grow through 2027Solar generation is forecast to grow more rapidly, increasing by 20.82% in 2026 and by 18.08% in 2027. Utility-scale solar generation increased by 33.79% in 2025 compared with 2024. Solar is forecast to account for 8.11% of US electricity…
- Solar PPA Prices Rise 6% YoY in North America, Fall 4% in EuropeNorth American solar PPA prices increased 4.9% QoQ, while European prices rose 0.4% Solar power purchase agreement (PPA) prices in North America increased 6% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, while prices in Europe…
- ‘Business as Usual’: Despite Governor’s Directive, TCEQ Continues Processing and Issuing Data Center PermitsEvery day, Big Banks, Big Tech, and their armies of corporate lobbyists threaten our economy, our financial security, and our democracy – sacrificing Main Street Americans and our families on the altar of corporate profits. Public Citizen…
- Texas Grid Meets Record Power Demand as Clean Energy Gains GroundTexas' electricity grid weathered a record-breaking summer as renewable energy supplied a growing share of power, according to a new analysis from the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) examining hourly electricity generation data. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions