Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 8, 4 PM ET10% → 16%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Yes
10%
▼ 7
6¢
13¢
$7.69
327
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Abbott spent years fortifying the Texas border. Hinojosa could undo it allWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) spent more than five years and $11 billion fortifying the state’s 1,250-mile border with Mexico as millions of people came into the country unlawfully under the Biden administration, but those…
Gina Hinojosa Beats Greg Abbott, Delivering Democrats’ Texas DreamNewsweek · 6 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 11:07 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:32 PM EST Gina Hinojosa, an Austin civil rights attorney and Democratic state representative, made history Tuesday by becoming the first Hispanic governor elected in Texas, ending more than…
Texas remade education in the GOP’s image. Hinojosa plans to undo it.The Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the Democratic…
Hinojosa defeats Abbott to end Texas Democrats' decades-long droughtIJR News · 3 days agoCBS News · Nov 6, 2026 Newsweek · Nov 7, 2026 Washington Examiner · Nov 7, 2026 Exit polls show that roughly six in 10 voters believe the United States made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, and many say the conflict influenced…
Gina Hinojosa Appoints Republican in First Move as Governor-ElectNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 10:26 AM EST Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, has named a Republican former lawmaker to her transition leadership team, making a bipartisan appointment as she prepares to take office in January. Former state…
Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeats Texas governor Greg Abbott in stunning upsetthe Guardian · 6 days agoHinojosa wins momentous victory, shatters Republican grip on key office and will become state’s first Latina governor US midterm elections – live updates Track live results from all 50 states In a stunning political upset that would have…
What to know about Gina Hinojosa, Texas' first Latina governor-electNPR · 3 days agoWhat to know about Gina Hinojosa, Texas’ first Latina governor-elect NPR What to know about Gina Hinojosa, Texas' first Latina governor-elect From The Texas Newsroom What to know about Gina Hinojosa, Texas’ first Latina governor-elect Gina…
Trump warns he will enforce border policies if Hinojosa rolls back Abbott effortsAudacy · 4 days agoAudacy President Donald Trump said Thursday he will continue enforcing his administration’s border security policies in Texas if Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa moves to reverse outgoing Gov. Greg Abbott’s immigration crackdown. Hinojosa has not…
Democrat Gina Hinojosa wins race for Texas governor, ousting Greg AbbottNPR · 6 days agoFrom The Texas Newsroom Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa, here seen at a rally Oct. 25th in Weslaco, Texas, will be the first Democratic Texas governor since Ann Richards, who left office in 1995. Michael Gonzalez/AP hide caption Midterms…
Democrat Gina Hinojosa stuns Abbott, makes history as first Latina Texas governorFox News · 6 days agoTexas Gov. Greg Abbott joins Jacqui Heinrich to analyze the latest Fox News poll showing him leading Democratic opponent Gina Hinojosa. Abbott addresses early voting turnout, data centers in the state and a foiled ISIS-inspired terror…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions