China unemployment rate in October (China UE Oct 2026)

Kalshi Economy › Jobs Closes Nov 15 · $10 today · $8.2K traded · $3.4K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

5.07%median

4.5%5.7%

Median 5.07%Middle half 5.03% – 5.13%

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.1% on Oct 20, 5.07% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 4.6%	99%	32¢		$1.01	1.6K
Above 4.7%	99%	20¢		$1.01	968
Above 4.8%	99%	87¢		$1.01	994
Above 4.9%	99%	20¢	99¢	$1.01	2.8K
Above 5.0%	93%	60¢	98¢	$1.02	50.00
Above 5.1%	31%	26¢	50¢	$2.00	4.7K
Above 5.2%	8%	2¢	40¢	$2.50	576
Above 5.3%	8%	1¢	23¢	$4.35	971
Above 5.4%	5%		9¢	$11.11	2.7K
Above 5.5%	3%		5¢	$20.00	333
Above 5.6%	3%		5¢	$20.00	5.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls

Search ›

Unemployment Rate Soars Past 10 PercentCBS News · 14 days agoNovember 6, 2009 / 8:40 AM EST / CBS/AP The U.S. unemployment rate has hit double digits for the first time since 1983 - and is likely to go higher. The 10.2 percent jobless rate for October shows how weak the economy remains even though…
Luzerne County LERTA ordinance would allow council to revoke tax breaks for missing job reportsTimes Leader · 14 days agoA proposed real estate tax-break ordinance up for Luzerne County Council adoption Tuesday has more teeth. The ordinance sets reporting requirements and procedures for future tax-break requests. Originally, the document said a property…
What the September Jobs Report Really Changes for Global MarketsAOL.com · 15 days agoOn the surface, this can be considered a clear signal of strong labor market conditions. However, for financial markets, the numbers behind the payroll figure can matter even more. Wages, labor market participation rate, and revisions can…
The RBA has primed the market for an interest rate rise. But what will it mean for unemployment?the Guardian · 13 days agoCentral bank forecast that unemployment might have to move even higher makes it clear how much more the RBA cares about inflation than full employment Back in July the June inflation figures killed off chances of a rate rise; yesterday…
New York audits reveal billions in unverified Medicaid payments, improper unemployment paymentsFox Business · 13 days agoFOX Business correspondent Connor Hansen reports on a new analysis exposing gaps in New York’s oversight that left billions in taxpayer funds vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse. A new report examining New York state audits found billions…
Unemployment could rise to 5% in a year due to AI, says Jason GreerCNBC · 14 days agoJason Greer, Greer Consulting president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the impact of AI on the workforce, what unemployment could look like in 12 months, and more. Unemployment could rise to 5% in a year due to AI, says Jason Greer
Unemployment Benefits Would Get Boost Under New Bill Linked to AI FearsNewsweek · 14 days agoOct 26, 2026 at 01:07 PM EDT The Stability and Opportunity for Workers Act, unveiled by Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden of Oregon, aims to broaden system coverage, extend assistance during periods of economic downturn…
Gov’t proposes $5,000 payroll tax rebateBVI News · 13 days agoPremier Dr Natalio Wheatley The government has proposed a $5,000 payroll tax rebate for lower-income earners at the end of 2027, with Premier Dr Natalio Wheatley saying the measure requires Cabinet and House of Assembly approval. Dr…
Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?Dollars & Sense · 16 days agoA one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
PNC Bank to embed ADP Payroll and insurance solutions@coveragerinc · 12 days agoPNC Bank and ADP have announced a partnership to bring payroll and workforce services into PNC’s digital banking platform for small businesses. The offering, PNC Payroll by ADP, will provide access to payroll, HR, benefits, time tracking…
What payroll can tell you about your businessKRDO · 13 days agoBy Laci Buzzelli for ADP A small business owner has a decision to make. Overtime has climbed for the third month in a row, and the team is stretched. Adding another employee could ease the workload, but it also means adding to payroll at a…
Seattle farmworker payroll startup Ganaz acquired as CEO Hannah Freeman steps awayGeekWire · 12 days agoChronicling the Seattle and Pacific Northwest startup scene. SEE MORE by Lisa Stiffler on Oct 28, 2026 at 1:38 pmOctober 28, 2026 at 1:47 pm Seattle startup Ganaz, which provides payroll and HR tech for agricultural workers and employers…

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Economy › Jobs

Australia unemployment rate in October (Australia UE 2026)

4.73%median

4.2%5.3%

Median 4.73%Middle half 4.62% – 4.85%

Economy › Jobs

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 (South Africa UE Q3 2026)

33.29%median

30.5%35.5%

Median 33.29%Middle half 32.68% – 33.86%

Economy › Jobs

Mexico unemployment rate in October (Mexico UE Oct 2026)

2.61%median

2.5%3.5%

Median 2.61%

Economy › Jobs

Germany unemployment rate in November (Germany UE Nov 2026)

6.36%median

5.8%6.9%

Median 6.36%Middle half 6.32% – 6.43%

Economy › Jobs

Russia unemployment rate in October (Russia UE Oct 2026)

2.2%median

1.8%2.6%

Median 2.2%Middle half 2.13% – 2.27%

Economy › Jobs

Canada unemployment rate in November (Canada UE Nov 2026)

6.64%median

6.1%7.2%

Median 6.64%Middle half 6.52% – 6.77%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTrading Economics

Trading closesNov 15, 2026 9:55 PM ET

Traded$8.2K (20,645 contracts)

Today$10

This week$195

At stake$3.4K

In the news303 headlines today, 613 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the China unemployment rate is above 4.6% for October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions