When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $14 today · $6.7K traded · $2.8K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

Apr 6, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 202732%▲ 3
  • Before Apr 1, 202749%▲ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202782%▲ 1
  • Before Jan 1, 202890%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 37% on Oct 20, 32% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Nov 1, 2026 1% $100.00 447
Before Jan 1, 2027 32% ▲ 3 29¢ 35¢ $2.86 170
Before Apr 1, 2027 49% ▲ 2 45¢ 52¢ $1.92 5.3K
Before Jul 1, 2027 82% ▲ 1 78¢ 85¢ $1.18 5.0K
Before Jan 1, 2028 90% ▲ 1 86¢ 94¢ $1.06

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Writ

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  • NPP’s presidential term limit writ is premature and flawed, says Brako-Powers3News · 12 days agoThe NPP is seeking declarations on how the term limit should apply, including where presidential terms are interrupted. Legal practitioner and policy analyst Austin Kwabena Brako-Powers has called for the dismissal of the New Patriotic…
  • Lincoln and Taney’s great writ showdown@ConstitutionCtr · 13 days agoMay 28, 2023 | by Scott Bomboy On May 28, 1861, Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger Taney directly challenged President Abraham Lincoln’s wartime suspension of the great writ of habeas corpus, in a national constitutional showdown. As Chief…
  • Against Writs of Assistance (1761)@ConstitutionCtr · 17 days agoWednesday – Sunday, 10 a.m. – 5 p.m. James Otis | 1761 Emeritus Dean of James Madison College and Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University Associate Professor of History at Stanford University This Writ is…
  • Raj HC refuses writ against rejected nomination in Panchayat polls, cites Article 243-O barThe PinkCity Post · 19 days agoRajasthan High Court declined to interfere with a rejected Panchayat nomination, citing the Article 243-O bar and the Rule 80 election petition remedy. Home » Rajasthan HC Jaipur » Raj HC refuses writ against rejected nomination in…
  • Court of Appeal rejects interim petitions in Suresh Sallay's writ petitionHiru News · 19 days agoHiru News Court of Appeal rejects interim petitions in Suresh Sallay's writ petition Vallibel One raises direct stake in Fortress Resorts to 49.93% Difficulty in tracing local firearms hinders wildlife crime investigations Tesla cuts…
  • NWMI Files Writ Petition in SC over Assault and Detention of JournalistsNWM India · 21 days agoPublished On: October 14th, 2026 The Network of Women in Media, India (NWMI) filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court on 13 October 2026 over the assault and arbitrary detention of journalists by Delhi Police personnel during the…
  • Is Afenyo-Markin???s GH??15 million suit a face-saving writ?MyJoyOnline · 21 days agoIn this country, we have turned defamation suits into face masks. You wear one when the political air gets polluted, not necessarily because you want justice, but because you want to look like you want justice. The story is simple. Sammy…
  • Party boycotts Constitution Bill consultations, demands election writFiji Sun · 21 days agoTuesday 20 October 2026 | 05:00 Updated 20 October 2026 | 14:55 FJT Kingdom Unite All People’s Party (KUAPP) party leader Sefanaia Manoa. Constitution Review 2026: what the Bill would change, and how to have your say Compare the Bill with…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions