Next government of the United Kingdom? (Before Jan 1, 2030)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 1, 2030 · $328 traded · $192 at stake · prices read 35 min ago

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The odds

16%Labour majority
  • Labour majority16%
  • Reform UK majority8%
  • Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition7%▲ 1
  • Reform UK minority7%▲ 1
  • Reform UK minority + Conservative support7%▲ 1
  • Labour minority5%
  • Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support5%
  • Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition5%
  • Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support5%
  • Reform UK and Conservative coalition4%
  • Labour minority + Green support4%
  • Conservative minority4%
7 more
  • Labour minority + SNP support4%
  • Conservative majority4%
  • Conservative minority + Reform UK support4%
  • Reform UK minority + DUP support3%
  • Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition3%
  • Conservative minority + DUP support2%
  • Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition2%

How the odds have moved

Labour majority: 15% on Oct 19, 16% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Labour majority 16% 15¢ 17¢ $5.88 1.4K
Reform UK majority 8% 6¢ 11¢ $9.09 50.00
Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition 7% ▲ 1 4¢ 11¢ $9.09 327
Reform UK minority 7% ▲ 1 3¢ 11¢ $9.09 29.00
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 7% ▲ 1 3¢ 11¢ $9.09 23.00
Labour minority 5% 1¢ 9¢ $10.75 192
Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.24 168
Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.24 141
Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support 5% 1¢ 8¢ $12.05 139
Reform UK and Conservative coalition 4% 1¢ 7¢ $13.70 79.00
Labour minority + Green support 4% 1¢ 7¢ $13.89 166
Conservative minority 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 269
Labour minority + SNP support 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 197
Conservative majority 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.49 63.00
Conservative minority + Reform UK support 4% 1¢ 7¢ $15.38 9.00
Reform UK minority + DUP support 3% 1¢ 6¢ $18.18 114
Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition 3% 1¢ 5¢ $19.61 63.00
Conservative minority + DUP support 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 76.00
Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 46.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: United Kingdom

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions