The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
$100.00
22.3K
Before Nov 1, 2026
2%
▼ 1
$50.00
11.3K
Before Dec 1, 2026
21%
▲ 8
20¢
22¢
$4.55
29.1K
Before Jan 1, 2027
40%
▲ 11
38¢
42¢
$2.38
7.2K
Before Feb 1, 2027
55%
▲ 25
49¢
62¢
$1.61
2.3K
Before Mar 1, 2027
55%
▲ 1
36¢
88¢
$1.14
963
Before Apr 1, 2027
79%
▲ 12
70¢
93¢
$1.08
409
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Trump says Iran war will end "soon" as Qatar pushes for U.S.-Iran dealCBS News · 10 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Qatar pushing for…
Oil prices fall as renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts ease supply fearsCNBC · 12 days agoOil prices declined Thursday as prospects of renewed peace negotiations eased fears of supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell 1.23% to $113.9 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas…
Qatari Mediators Return to Tehran to Push for U.S.-Iran Deal, Official SaysHaaretz · 11 days agoAraghchi said Tehran's own seven-day plan could be implemented in less than a week, adding that Iran was 'continu[ing] to give diplomacy a chance to succeed' even as its armed forces remained on alert Araghchi said Tehran's own seven-day…
April 2026: Global consumer confidence declines sharply amid ongoing U.S.-Iran WarIpsos · 10 days agoIpsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index is down 2.7 points this month and sits at 46.7. Many countries appear to be feeling negative effects as a result of the ongoing U.S.-Iran War, which is currently in its seventh week. The index shows…
Trump reportedly briefed on options with IranFox News · 11 days agoFox News' Jacqui Heinrich provides details on Trump's top-level briefing on the options for the U.S. with Iran. Senior strategic analyst Gen. Jack Keane (ret.) discusses the possible implications of the briefing and the latest on the war…
Iran resumes attacks in Strait of Hormuz, US saysGraphic Online · 10 days agoIran's military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, two U.S. officials tell Axios. Why it matters: The reported attacks threaten to unravel a memorandum of understanding signed…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions