Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 9, 10 PM ET53% → 37%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Yes
37%
▼ 16
32¢
42¢
$2.38
15.4K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Battle heats up between Rubio and Vance.citizenfreepress.com · 5 days agoThe Greatest News Site On The Internet. Home of CFP Nation. Battle heats up between Rubio and Vance. Posted by Kane on November 4, 2026 1:52 pm
Chaos in the White House after defeat: Rubio may resign to run for PresidentVox News · 4 days agoUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio may leave Donald Trump's administration to pave the way for a presidential run in the 2028 elections. The news is reported by the British newspaper "The Independent", which cites sources close to the…
About Last Night: The Silver Lining, and the Path Forwardpjmedia.com · 6 days agoWell, looks like we lost the midterms. This isn’t the first time this has happened, and it won’t be the last. But now comes the wailing, the gnashing of teeth, the rendering of garments, and the Game of Thrones-length winter that will…
US Midterm Elections 2026: The Voting Map That Could Reshape WashingtonSEE News · 6 days agoAmericans headed to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, in crucial midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and shape the remaining two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Republicans are fighting to maintain…
Candidates ramp up campaigns across Kansas, WisconsinIJR News · 13 days agoHow many tie-breaking Senate votes will JD Vance cast in 2026? Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029? Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028? Will J.D. Vance win the 2028…
WJ Straw Poll: Rubio Opens Massive Lead Over Vance as Massie Takes Another HitThe Western Journal · 14 days agoFor the first time, he also came just one-tenth of a percent short of grabbing a majority of support among all potential contenders. Rubio received 49.9 percent of the vote in the survey, which was conducted from Oct. 19-25. The strong…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions