Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31 · $37K today · $1.3M traded · $316K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

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The odds

93%Nicolás Maduro
  • Nicolás Maduro93%▼ 1
  • Delcy Rodríguez8%▲ 1
  • María Corina Machado1%
  • Marco Rubio1%▼ 1
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Jorge Rodríguez1%
  • Vladimir Padrino López1%
  • Edmundo González1%
  • Diosdado Cabello Rondón1%
  • Pete Hegseth1%▼ 1
  • Dinorah Figuera1%
  • Miguel Rodríguez Torres<1%
6 more
  • Richard Grenell<1%
  • Juan Guaidó<1%
  • Evan Pettus<1%
  • Frank Donovan<1%
  • Dan Caine<1%
  • Stephen Miller<1%

How the odds have moved

Nicolás Maduro: 76% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETNicolás Maduro: 84% → 91%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Nicolás Maduro 93% ▼ 1 93¢ 93¢ $1.07 1.2M
Delcy Rodríguez 8% ▲ 1 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 1.6M
María Corina Machado 1% 1¢ 2¢ $55.56 1.2M
Marco Rubio 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 3¢ $35.71 385.6K
Donald Trump 1% 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 384.6K
Jorge Rodríguez 1% 0¢ 2¢ $43.48 49.9K
Vladimir Padrino López 1% 3¢ $38.46 71.6K
Edmundo González 1% 0¢ 2¢ $45.45 454.6K
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1% 0¢ 2¢ $50.00 88.6K
Pete Hegseth 1% ▼ 1 2¢ $52.63 136.4K
Dinorah Figuera 1% 1¢ $83.33 23.9K
Miguel Rodríguez Torres <1% 1¢ 2.7K
Richard Grenell <1% 1¢ 90.1K
Juan Guaidó <1% 0¢ 1¢ 8.5K
Evan Pettus <1% 1¢ 183.2K
Frank Donovan <1% 1¢ 119.9K
Dan Caine <1% 0¢ 191.0K
Stephen Miller <1% 0¢ 0¢ 77.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro

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  • Special Report Part 5: What Was Life Like Under Nicolás Maduro?Liberty Nation News · 40 h agoIndependent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report Part 5: What Was…
  • Special Report 6: Was Nicolás Maduro Much More Brutal Than Hugo Chávez?Liberty Nation News · 36 h agoIndependent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report 6: Was Nicolás…
  • Florida’s most Venezuelan city put the Republican Party on noticeThe Washington Post · 2 days agoOf all the places that got swept up in the Democratic “blue wave,” one of the most unlikely was the heart of the Venezuelan diaspora in the U.S. Doral, a city in South Florida often called “Doralzuela” for its large concentration of…
  • The Destruction of Venezuela’s Economy under Chávez and MaduroMises Institute · 3 days agoIn the Venezuelan case, the first beneficiaries were the state and its circle of associates, while those who bore the effects last were workers, teachers, and retirees, whose incomes lost purchasing power before they could spend them in…
  • Stephen Miller Unleashes Fire Over Venezuela Strike: 'Damn Straight' We Seized Maduro to Protect Americaredstate.com · 3 days agoSenior White House advisor Stephen Miller delivered an unapologetic, full-throated defense of the operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a recent appearance on CNN. That defense came about…
  • Jailed Maduro Hits 92% in Venezuela MarketThe Rio Times · 4 days agoTraders on Polymarket now put the chance that Nicolás Maduro, the jailed former president, is Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December at about 92%, up about 17 points in a week. That price sits awkwardly with the facts. Maduro was…
  • Dominican committee demands release of Nicolas Maduro, Cilia FloresPrensa Latina · 5 days agoMembers of the organization gathered at Simon Bolivar Plaza in Caracas to reiterate their call for the release of both individuals, whom they described as “prisoners of war of the United States.” In a statement, the Committee condemned…
  • Machado visits camp outside notorious Venezuelan prisonMacau Business · 3 days agoVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado visited relatives of political prisoners camping outside a notorious detention facility on Friday, after her recent return from exile. Machado’s homecoming has unsettled Venezuela’s…
  • US assisted Venezuela in deadly drone strike, officials saySan Juan Daily Star · 4 days agoBy ANNIE CORREAL, ERIC SCHMITT, ISAYEN HERRERA and JULIE TURKEWITZ For years, a Colombian rebel army operated freely across the border in Venezuela, allowed to traffic cocaine and oversee illicit gold mines under Nicolás Maduro, the…
  • Trump Kidnapped Venezuela’s President. Now Britain Looks to ProfitOrinoco Tribune · 3 days agoBy Ana Maria Monjardino and John McEvoy – Oct 1, 2026 BP and Shell are cashing in on Venezuela’s oil and gas following the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro. Britain’s energy giants stand to make huge profits in Venezuela amid a major…
  • Rubio Eyes Venezuela Election in 2027The Rio Times · 4 days agoWashington has floated a year for Venezuela’s return to the ballot box, and it came with a hedge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, that elections would "ideally" be held next year, but he would not promise a…
  • Rubio Says U.S. in Talks to Establish Military Presence in VenezuelaAmerican Greatness · 41 h agoThe United States is negotiating with Venezuela to establish an American military presence in the country, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. In an interview with the New York Times, Rubio said the U.S. wants a “presence agreement” that…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions