How many bills will Trump veto in 2026?
28%At least 1
06
Install
How many bills will Trump veto before 2028?
The odds
12.5median
035
Median 12.5Middle half 5.68 – 26.0
How the odds have moved
Median: 14.1 on Nov 3, 12.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2 | 86% | 83¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 24.00 | |
| At least 4 | 83% | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 42.00 | |
| At least 6 | 74% | 69¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 1.00 | |
| At least 8 | 65% | 60¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 1.2K | |
| At least 10 | 57% | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 85.00 | |
| At least 12 | 52% | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 20.00 | |
| At least 15 | 42% | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 236 | |
| At least 20 | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 7.00 | |
| At least 25 | 28% | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 6.00 | |
| At least 30 | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
Search ›- The Odds: Another Trump ImpeachmentCNN News Central's John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examine what polling and prediction markets reveal about the likelihood of another Trump impeachment effort once Democrats take control of Congress in January. The Odds…
- Tracking Trump: Hegseth impeachment proceedings; Trump questions midterm results; Trump bone spurs statue; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A GOP lawmaker kicked…
- Trump: New Iran attacks "quite unlikely"President Trump said Monday that a renewed military campaign against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary."Why it matters: Trump stopped short of saying the war was over, but his comments on Truth Social and at an…
- Russia and Ukraine Keep Ignoring Donald TrumpNov 09, 2026 at 12:27 PM EST Russia and Ukraine traded strikes on each other's energy infrastructure into Monday, targeting sites President Donald Trump had decreed last month—without Kyiv and Moscow's agreement—to be off limits. The…
- Trump talks midterms with 60 minutesDays after Republicans faced a series of bruising midterm election losses, President Trump stood by his handling of the economy and the Iran war — but he acknowledged some "bad messaging" on economic issues and said his immigration…
- 11/8/2026: Donald Trump; France on FireCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. 11/8/2026: Donald…
- Eye Opener: Trump reckons with midterm resultsPresident Trump is reckoning with Republican midterm losses. Meanwhile, the Nvidia CEO admitted to an affair as he's investigated for ties to a suspected Chinese spy. All that and all that matters in today's Eye Opener. Eye Opener: Trump…
- Trump dismisses prospects of a third impeachmentFollowing the midterm election results, President Donald Trump dismissed threats of another impeachment effort from Democrats and claimed his past two impeachments ultimately worked to his advantage. Trump dismisses prospects of a third…
- Trump casts doubt on Democrats’ historic midterm winsNearly a week after Democrats decisively took back the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, President Donald Trump is casting doubt on the results. “Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls…
- Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with Iran'The Big Money Show' debates President Donald Trump's strategy regarding the conflict in Iran as he signals restraint and the impact of the war and gas prices on the midterm elections. Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with Iran 'The…
- Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
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All trump administration ›Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
36%Pete Hegseth
- Pete Hegseth36%▼ 7
- Will Scharf30%▼ 9
- Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
- Stanley Woodward28%▼ 4
- Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
- Howard Lutnick26%▲ 5
- Christopher Landau25%▼ 1
- Kash Patel22%▼ 2
- Doug Collins21%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung20%▼ 5
- Brad Cooper19%▼ 2
- Kevin Hassett19%▲ 1
- Dan Caine19%▼ 4
- Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
- Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
- Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
- Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.15%▼ 1
- Chris Wright14%
- Doug Burgum14%
- Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
- John Ratcliffe14%▼ 1
- Jamieson Greer13%▲ 1
- Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
- Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
- Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
- Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
- Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
- Scott Turner12%▲ 1
- Tom Homan12%▼ 1
- Mike Waltz11%▼ 7
- Todd Blanche11%▼ 6
- Rodney Scott10%▼ 1
- Mike Huckabee10%▼ 1
- Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
- Scott Bessent8%
- Lee Zeldin8%
- Russell Vought8%
- Tilman Fertitta7%▲ 1
- Brendan Carr5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
34%chance▼ 9
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
99%Susie Wiles
- Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
- None before 2027<1%▼ 17
- J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
- Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
- Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
- Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
- Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
- Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
- Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
- Scott Turner<1%
- Sean Duffy<1%
- Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
- Linda McMahon<1%
- Doug Collins<1%
- Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
- Russell T. Vought<1%
- John Ratcliffe<1%
- Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
- Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
- Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Trump out as President before 2027?
2%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions