Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $175K today · $15.6M traded · $4.8M at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith1%

How the odds have moved

Scott Colom: 12% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 4, 11 PM ETScott Colom: 3% → 96%
- Mississippi Senate Race Too Close To Call As Scott Colom Leads Cindy Hyde-SmithNewsCord · 5 days ago
- Democrat Scott Colom and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in close race over Mississippi senate seatWBRZ · 5 days ago
- Mississippi Senate race too close to call as Scott Colom holds narrow lead over Cindy Hyde-SmithWXXV News 25 · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Scott Colom	99%		99¢	99¢	$1.01	15.5M
Cindy Hyde-Smith	1%		1¢	2¢	$66.67	23.8M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mississippi Senate, Scott Colom, Cindy Hyde-Smith

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‘Where is Cindy Hyde-Smith?’: In a nail-biter Senate race, the incumbent stays out of view in MississippiCNN · 16 h agoAs the Mississippi Senate race still remains too close to call, Democrat Scott Colom and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith have taken completely different approaches towards the public. While Colom has appeared at local universities, a Black-owned…
Mississippi Senate candidate Scott Colom attacks Cook Political Report accuracyThe Washington Post · 4 h agoSenate candidate Scott Colom (D) in Mississippi lashed out at the Cook Political Report on Monday, criticizing the vaunted election forecaster for underestimating his campaign’s strength against incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). In a…
Mississippi Senate latest: Scott Colom's lead over Cindy Hyde-Smith tops 2,500 votes as key deadlines loomYahoo News · 16 h agoOutstanding ballots are due by Tuesday, Nov. 10. County clerks have until Nov. 13 to certify the election. And Colom's lead has widened almost every day since Election Day, when it stood at just 65 votes. Even though 97% of the vote is in…
Mississippi Senate election: Democrat Scott Colom narrowly leads Republican Cindy Hyde-SmithCNBC · 4 days agoMississippi's uncalled Senate election could provide one of the biggest shocks in a midterm election cycle already chock full of stunning Republican defeats. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the GOP incumbent, is trailing Democratic nominee Scott…
Where Is Cindy Hyde-Smith?Political Wire · 15 h ago“As the Mississippi Senate race still remains too close to call, Democrat Scott Colom and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith have taken completely different approaches towards the public,” CNN reports. “Since Election Day, Colom has held at least…
Scott Colom vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith: How Mississippi Recount Would WorkNewsweek · 4 days agoNov 05, 2026 at 02:24 PM EST Nov 05, 2026 at 03:24 PM EST Less than 2,000 votes separate Democrat Scott Colom and Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the race for a Mississippi U.S. Senate seat, and questions are mounting about…
Mississippi Senate ballot deadline looms, as Democrat’s lead remains steadyThe Washington Post · 10 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom's lead…
Colom vs. Hyde-Smith: Mississippi Senate Race Update as Key Deadline NearsNewsweek · 4 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 12:48 PM EST Mississippi counties must certify and submit their election results by Friday, a key deadline to the still-undecided Senate race between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican…
Scott Colom’s lead increases to over 2,000 votes ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith in Senate race@WLBT · 3 days agoWLBT Scott Colom’s lead increases to over 2,000 votes ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith in Senate race Colom meets Jackson voters as Senate ballot count continues Groups raise concerns about public view of affidavit ballot count in 3 Mississippi…
Scott Colom's Lead Grows to 2,574 as Cindy Hyde-Smith's Paths DimMississippi Free Press · 3 days agoMississippi Free Press LIVE RESULTS: MISSISSIPPI U.S. SENATE ELECTION Democrat Scott Colom’s lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has expanded further as opportunities to make up lost ground continue to slip away from the…
Cindy Hyde-Smith campaign says thousands of ballots remain to be counted in Senate raceWXXV News 25 · 32 h agoMISSISSIPPI (WXXV) – As vote counting continues in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race, WXXV reached out to Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s campaign for comment on the ongoing tabulation process. In a statement to WXXV, Campaign Manager Jake Monsen…
Democrat Scott Colom argues GOP rival ‘doesn’t have’ path to victory in Mississippi Senate raceCNN · 3 days agoMeanwhile, in the House, Democrats are pushing toward a historic majority as more races are called. • In the House: Democrats, who have won their largest majority in nearly 20 years, are on the verge of exceeding the 257 seats at the start…

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AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
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AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
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IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$15.6M (39,323,202 contracts)

Today$175K

This week$11.5M

At stake$4.8M

In the news17 headlines today, 333 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Mississippi for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions