Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $139K traded · $18.4K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

66%No Next Chancellor before 2028
  • No Next Chancellor before 202866%
  • Hendrik Wüst13%
  • Markus Söder10%
  • Carsten Linnemann4%
  • Alice Weidel4%
  • Boris Pistorius4%
  • Lars Klingbeil1%
  • Felix Banaszak1%
  • Jens Spahn<1%
  • Tino Chrupalla<1%
  • Katharina Dröge<1%
  • Heidi Reichinnek<1%
1 more
  • Sahra Wagenknecht<1%

How the odds have moved

No Next Chancellor before 2028: 65% on Oct 20, 66% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
No Next Chancellor before 2028 66% 66¢ 67¢ $1.49 $112K
Hendrik Wüst 13% 13¢ 14¢ $7.14 $9.2K
Markus Söder 10% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 $4.6K
Carsten Linnemann 4% 1¢ 9¢ $11.36 $1.9K
Alice Weidel 4% 2¢ 7¢ $15.38 $3K
Boris Pistorius 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.95 $2.3K
Lars Klingbeil 1% 0¢ 2¢ $62.50 $1.3K
Felix Banaszak 1% 0¢ 1¢ $1.3K
Jens Spahn <1% 0¢ $529
Tino Chrupalla <1% 0¢ $653
Katharina Dröge <1% 0¢ $728
Heidi Reichinnek <1% 0¢ $874
Sahra Wagenknecht <1% 0¢ $784

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Chancellor of Germany, Hendrik Wüst, Markus Söder

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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