Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?
19%December 31
- October 312%▼ 1
- December 3119%▼ 1
Install
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?
The odds
13%December 31
- October 318%
- December 3113%
How the odds have moved
October 31: 10% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 8% | 2¢ | 14¢ | $7.25 | $59.8K | |
| December 31 | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $63.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Eritrea, Ethiopia
Search ›- Egypt brokers US-Eritrea thaw to corner EthiopiaCairo hopes that by helping the Americans establish relations with Egyptian allies in the region, it will be better placed to deal with the threats posed by Addis Ababa Egypt brokers US-Eritrea thaw to corner Ethiopia Egypt is acting as a…
- The port of Assab and the risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea warLandlocked Ethiopia says sovereign access to the Red Sea is an ‘existential’ issue, and its troops are now massing on the border with its smaller neighbour, Eritrea. What next? The port of Assab and the risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea war The…
- As Eritrea Continues to Orchestrate Attacks from Its Territory, Ethiopia Retains Its Inherent Right to Self-Defencehorn review As Eritrea Continues to Orchestrate Attacks from Its Territory, Ethiopia Retains Its Inherent Right to Self-Defence Ethiopia’s security concerns with Eritrea extend well beyond the presence of Eritrean troops inside its…
- UN Fears Eritrean Troops in Ethiopia 9 OctETHIOPIA · ERITREA · UN UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Friday 9 October 2026 that he is deeply worried by reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia. His statement warned that fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray, Afar and Amhara…
- Ethiopian PM puts ministers through military trainingEthiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has put his cabinet ministers and other senior government officials through military training, saying armed forces discipline can help build stronger leaders and advance the country's development. The…
- Today's top news: Ukraine, Yemen, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Eritrea, AfghanistanUN relief chief calls for entry of vital aid as Oleshky ceasefire holds Elsewhere in Ukraine, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says that the UN and its humanitarian partners are responding to…
- Somalia says it will not take sides in Ethiopia-Eritrea tensionsSomalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said his country will not take sides in disputes between Ethiopia and Eritrea, stressing that Mogadishu maintains relations with both governments. Speaking to Sky News on 30 October, Mr Hassan…
- Ethiopia And Eritrea Have Severed Diplomatic Ties, Threatening Regional Peace In The Horn Of AfricaEritrea has cut ties with Ethiopia amid conflict in the Horn of Africa. According to BBC, the diplomatic collapse came after Ethiopia announced it was closing its embassy in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital.
- Red Sea Insecurity Highlights Eritrea’s Strategic ValueEritrea is seeing its strategic value to regional security and the global economy rise as conflict affects traffic on the Red Sea. Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels have disrupted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz…
- Sudan complains to UN Security Council over drone attacks from EthiopiaKHARTOUM: Sudan has filed complaints against Ethiopia with the UN Security Council and the African Union, accusing Addis Ababa of allowing the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to launch drone strikes on civilian facilities from its…
- Ethiopia attacks kill civilians as health system nears collapse, WHO chief saysRenewed fighting has effectively shattered a November 2022 peace agreement between the federal government and rebel forces in the Tigray region, stoking fears of a wider conflict. Tedros gave no casualty totals or dates for either attack…
- What does ACLED data show about violent incidents in the Arsi zone, Ethiopia?Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru comments on the escalation of violence targeting Orthodox Christian civilians in Ethiopia’s Arsi zone and the patterns behind recent attacks. Regional Expert, East Africa Clashes erupted between an unidentified…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions