Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETYair Lapid: 14% → 22%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Yair Lapid
39%
▼ 1
37¢
40¢
$2.50
$27.7K
No Next Minister by Feb 28
28%
▼ 14
20¢
36¢
$2.78
$81.8K
Naftali Bennett
4%
▼ 8
2¢
5¢
$20.41
$21.6K
Gadi Eizenkot
3%
▲ 1
1¢
6¢
$17.86
$28.3K
Benjamin Netanyahu
3%
1¢
5¢
$21.28
$13.5K
Amir Ohana
1%
0¢
2¢
$50.00
$1.8K
Gideon Sa’ar
1%
0¢
1¢
$76.92
$16.6K
Avigdor Lieberman
1%
▼ 1
0¢
1¢
$76.92
$10.5K
Eli Cohen
1%
0¢
1¢
$90.91
$1.7K
Israel Katz
1%
0¢
1¢
$100.00
$6.5K
Yossi Cohen
1%
0¢
1¢
$100.00
$2K
Ron Dermer
<1%
0¢
$2K
Yair Golan
<1%
0¢
0¢
$1.9K
Benny Gantz
<1%
0¢
$3K
Yoram Cohen
<1%
0¢
$1.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett
Who is Amir Sturgo? October 7 veteran running on Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad listThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 14 days agoThe current Knesset elections are imminent, but with a new race and new parties come new names and faces. Depending on how this election turns out, these newcomers of today could be the ministers of tomorrow and can help shape the course…
Agudat Yisrael, Naftali Bennett weigh key roles in post-election scenariosThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 15 days agoAgudat Yisrael, the three-MK haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could provide some form of support for a government led by a member of the opposition, according to assessments within the political establishment ahead of the…
Yair Lapid's Morocco visit has turned into a farceMiddle East Eye · 17 days agoIsraeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's visit to Morocco this week is not a historical event, since the kingdom normalised its relations with Israel back in December 2020. However, this high-profile visit has started to look like a national…
Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 14 days agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Yair Lapid: The upcoming election is about what we want Israel to be - opinionThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 17 days agoHere’s what I did on a typical morning this week before 8 a.m. I was interviewed on the radio to discuss someone on Channel 14 calling Gadi Eisenkot a “monkey,” and Yinon Magal describing Ofri Bibas, whose brother returned from captivity…
Middle Israel: Why Naftali Bennett should be Israel's next prime minister - opinionThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 18 days agoThe issues are clear. Israelis will judge their leaders next Tuesday on three fronts: accountability, duty, and merit. Accountability should dominate, as the trauma of autumn 2023 is etched in every voter’s mind. Two facts about this…
How Israel’s elections could bring thaw with Syria@AlMonitor · 15 days agoThe next Israeli government could have an opportunity to secure several diplomatic wins involving the United States and Iran by improving relations with Syria. How Israel’s elections could bring thaw with Syria The next Israeli government…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions