Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Feb 28, 2027 · $1.1K today · $133K traded · $5.4K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

31%No Next Minister by Feb 28

No Next Minister by Feb 2831%▲ 2
Yoram Cohen21%▲ 5
Yair Golan16%▲ 1
Yoav Segalovich7%▼ 7
Talya Lankri5%
Avi Dichter4%
Itamar Ben Gvir3%
Amir Ohana3%
Matan Kahana3%
Ofer Winter3%
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)2%
Gideon Sa’ar2%▼ 1

6 more

Eli Cohen2%
Elazar Stern1%
Yossi Cohen1%
Meirav Ben-Ari<1%
Ram Ben-Barak<1%
Bezalel Smotrich<1%

How the odds have moved

No Next Minister by Feb 28: 37% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28	31%	▲ 2	31¢	33¢	$3.03	$56.9K
Yoram Cohen	21%	▲ 5	21¢	23¢	$4.35	$14.4K
Yair Golan	16%	▲ 1	11¢	24¢	$4.12	$3.1K
Yoav Segalovich	7%	▼ 7	7¢	7¢	$14.08	$2.8K
Talya Lankri	5%		4¢	7¢	$14.93	$8.3K
Avi Dichter	4%		1¢	9¢	$11.24	$2.5K
Itamar Ben Gvir	3%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	$6.5K
Amir Ohana	3%		1¢	6¢	$17.24	$1.9K
Matan Kahana	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.83	$12.3K
Ofer Winter	3%		1¢	5¢	$18.87	$9.6K
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)	2%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	$756
Gideon Sa’ar	2%	▼ 1	0¢	4¢	$26.32	$2.5K
Eli Cohen	2%		0¢	3¢	$32.26	$1.5K
Elazar Stern	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$4.2K
Yossi Cohen	1%		0¢	2¢	$55.56	$2.7K
Meirav Ben-Ari	<1%		0¢	1¢		$545
Ram Ben-Barak	<1%		0¢	1¢		$570
Bezalel Smotrich	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Minister of National Security, Yoram Cohen, Yair Golan

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Yair Golan threatens Channel 14, Eli AcademyIsrael National News · 16 days agoYair Golan's election demands include shutting down Channel 14 if it refuses to sign an ethics code, cutting funding to a pre-military academy, and taking control of four key ministries. Yair Golan threatens Channel 14, Eli Academy
Starting this morning: Yair Golan to receive Shin Bet protectionIsrael National News · 16 days agoWhile Golan will receive full Shin Bet protection, Ofer Winter and Gadi Eisenkot will be protected by private security companies under the supervision of the Dignitary Protection Unit. Starting this morning: Yair Golan to receive Shin Bet…
Yair Golan lashes out at his political alliesIsrael National News · 18 days agoDemocrats Party chairman Yair Golan criticizes fellow members of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, saying he cannot trust them and rejecting a unity government with Likud. Yair Golan lashes out at his political allies
Yair Golan accuses Netanyahu of plotting fresh Iran strikes to serve ‘political and personal considerations’The Jewish Chronicle · 19 days agoA new report has suggested that Netanyahu planned to launch a new assault on the Islamic Republic, but was stopped by US President Trump Yair Golan, the leader of the Democrats in Israel, has condemned Prime Minister Netanyahu following…
Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionAl Jazeera · 16 days agoOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October…
Three days before election, tens of thousands rally in Tel Aviv for October 7 state inquiryynetglobal · 16 days agoFormer hostages, bereaved families and October 7 survivors gather at Hostages Square alongside opposition figures Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman; organizers urge police to prevent alleged coalition-linked attempts to…
LIKUD EYES LIBERMAN: Kisch Open To Yisrael Beytenu Joining Next Government, Rules Out Coalition With Yair Golan@YWN · 21 days agoEducation Minister Yoav Kisch says Likud would consider bringing Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party into Netanyahu’s next government, while ruling out a coalition with Yair Golan. Kisch said Likud would seek broader coalition support…
Netanyahu posts image of atomic bomb over Tel Aviv: ‘Nothing else will matter’ynetglobal · 16 days agoSharing a warning by political commentator Yuval Bloomberg, Netanyahu casts domestic controversies as a ‘smokescreen’ obscuring Iran's nuclear threat; Democrats leader Yair Golan accuses him of spreading panic ahead of Tuesday's election…
Netanyahu Has Told Israeli Diplomats To Support Argentine Push For Falklands Talks: ReportInternational Business Times · 16 days agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli diplomats to support Buenos Aires' calls for diplomatic talks over the future of the Falklands Islands, a self-governing British Overseas Territory which Argentina calls the Malvinas…
TRT World - Thousands of Israelis flood Tel Aviv streets to demand end of Netanyahu era ahead of electionsTRT World · 16 days agoThousands of Israelis have demonstrated in Tel Aviv against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, three days before Knesset elections and amid calls to replace his government and hold it accountable for its failures. Thousands gathered at…
Netanyahu summons Police Commissioner, Yashar Party furiousIsrael National News · 16 days agoTwo days before the Knesset elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned Police Commissioner Danny Levy on Sunday for a meeting concerning police preparations for Election Day. The invitation drew criticism from the Yashar Party…
On Israeli election eve, settler violence becomes Netanyahu liabilityThe Standard 英文虎報 · 18 days agoAttacks on a US journalist and European diplomats in the occupied West Bank have turned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's championing of settlers into a potential liability days before elections, with opponents calling him soft on…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesFeb 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$133K

Today$1.1K

This week$6.3K

At stake$5.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial po

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions